Bjørn Lomborg, chef för Copenhagen Consensus Center, har länge studerat vilken nytta pengar som går till exempelvis bistånd och klimatåtgärder gör. En del är pengar i sjön, medan andra åtgärder är mycket effektiva. Andreas Ericson intervjuar honom om biståndet, klimatpolitiken och åsiktskorridoren.
1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:06,800 Podden presenteras av Skattebetalarna, gör slöseri till en valfråga för bara 32 kronor i månaden.
2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:15,360 Det är torsdagen den 22 januari. Jag heter Andreas Eriksson och du lyssnar på Leda-redaktionen, en podd från Svenska Dagbladet.
3 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:27,160 Varmt välkomna ska ni vara till oss igen.
4 00:00:27,460 --> 00:00:29,860 Idag ska vi ta oss an minst sagt stora frågor.
5 00:00:30,420 --> 00:00:35,740 Hur ska vi egentligen prioritera världens resurser för att lösa de mest omfattade problemen vi har
6 00:00:35,740 --> 00:00:40,520 när det gäller exempelvis svält, undernäring, sjukdomar, brist på utbildning och så vidare.
7 00:00:40,660 --> 00:00:44,720 För att inte tala om de miljöproblem som exempelvis den globala uppvärmningen skapar.
8 00:00:45,780 --> 00:00:50,920 Vilka åtgärder är det som är effektiva? Vilka är det som ger mest givet vilka resurser man satsar?
9 00:00:51,500 --> 00:00:55,860 Och tvärtom, vilka är det som inte gör någon nytta alls trots att de kanske är väldigt dyra?
10 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:03,320 Det ska vi prata om idag och det ska vi göra med hjälp av en person som ni som har följt med Svenska Dagbladets ledare-redaktion känner väl till.
11 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,319 Han har varit en återkommande gästskribent.
12 00:01:05,740 --> 00:01:10,520 Han har varit en återkommande gästskribent i många år och heter Björn Lomborg och kommer från Copenhagen Consensus Center.
13 00:01:11,060 --> 00:01:12,760 Välkommen till ledare-redaktionen Björn.
14 00:01:12,980 --> 00:01:13,480 Många tack.
15 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,020 Nice to have you on the podcast.
16 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,560 First of all, I'd like to quote one of your famous countrymen, H.C. Andersen.
17 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:25,440 In the preface to a Swedish translation of one of his books, he wrote and I quote.
18 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:31,880 Jag håller eke av att danske bör översättas på svensk, eke heller att svensk förs över i vårt språk.
19 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,420 Min nabo, kone och skole läser hinande.
20 00:01:35,740 --> 00:01:41,700 Men det visar sig att detta ännu inte pågår, så översättelser är nödvändiga för många.
21 00:01:42,500 --> 00:01:46,860 And this is unfortunately still the case, so we're going to have this conversation in English.
22 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:47,920 That's fine with you?
23 00:01:48,140 --> 00:01:50,780 It's fine with me, and congrats on your day.
24 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:52,340 Thank you.
25 00:01:53,180 --> 00:01:54,740 Thank to H.C. Andersen.
26 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:58,860 I'd like to start with your latest piece in Svenska Dagbladets.
27 00:01:58,860 --> 00:02:03,560 You wrote it in December about the UN sustainability development goals.
28 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:05,080 Their deadlines.
29 00:02:05,740 --> 00:02:07,640 It's pretty close now, 2013.
30 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,539 How are we doing with these goals?
31 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:11,460 Not very well.
32 00:02:11,980 --> 00:02:16,380 And in some ways it really tells a very important story.
33 00:02:17,020 --> 00:02:21,000 So back in 2015 we did these goals.
34 00:02:21,220 --> 00:02:24,220 So Sweden signed up, Denmark signed up, every country in the world.
35 00:02:24,420 --> 00:02:26,340 I don't think North Korea did, but yeah.
36 00:02:26,860 --> 00:02:32,760 Virtually every country in the world signed up to do everything for everyone, everywhere, all the time.
37 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,580 And anything you can possibly imagine.
38 00:02:35,740 --> 00:02:40,480 So we promised to get rid of poverty, get rid of hunger, get rid of disease, pretty much.
39 00:02:41,140 --> 00:02:47,200 And get rid of air pollution and climate change and war and all other good things in the world.
40 00:02:47,920 --> 00:02:54,460 And it's very well intentioned, but we can't actually deliver on all these things.
41 00:02:54,460 --> 00:02:59,760 When you promise everything, you'll eventually end up making a lot of people feel really let down.
42 00:03:00,300 --> 00:03:03,900 So what we did was we promised way too much.
43 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:05,460 And we didn't give a thought.
44 00:03:05,740 --> 00:03:11,600 We didn't give a thought about what can we do at realistic costs and what can we do first.
45 00:03:11,820 --> 00:03:16,900 If we can't do everything, we really should have a conversation about where should we start, what should we do first.
46 00:03:17,300 --> 00:03:17,740 Okay.
47 00:03:18,740 --> 00:03:20,000 Just a piece of background.
48 00:03:20,260 --> 00:03:23,960 There were earlier UN goals, the Millennium Goals, and we did quite well, didn't we?
49 00:03:24,220 --> 00:03:24,620 We did.
50 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:25,740 We did a lot better.
51 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,540 And it's a cautionary tale.
52 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,960 So in 2000, the UN did the Millennium Development Goals.
53 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:35,720 And in reality, it was just...
54 00:03:35,740 --> 00:03:37,060 It was really seven goals.
55 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:38,840 And they were all very simple.
56 00:03:39,020 --> 00:03:40,500 You know, get people out of poverty.
57 00:03:40,780 --> 00:03:45,060 So it was more than half the global population of poverty.
58 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,820 Get moms and kids to not die.
59 00:03:49,180 --> 00:03:50,540 Get people out of starvation.
60 00:03:51,100 --> 00:03:54,640 Get more trees or less deforestation.
61 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:56,000 And a few others.
62 00:03:56,380 --> 00:03:58,280 Oh, get all kids into schools.
63 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,600 So, you know, these were very simple things.
64 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:04,340 And surprisingly and quite encouragingly,
65 00:04:04,580 --> 00:04:05,620 we managed to do a lot of things.
66 00:04:05,620 --> 00:04:05,700 We managed to do a lot of things.
67 00:04:05,700 --> 00:04:05,720 We managed to do a lot of things.
68 00:04:05,740 --> 00:04:07,600 We didn't manage to do all of them.
69 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:09,380 But we really got a far way.
70 00:04:09,660 --> 00:04:12,580 And the reason is, we picked a few goals.
71 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:14,900 And we picked really smart goals.
72 00:04:15,300 --> 00:04:18,060 Meaning goals that are fairly cheap to do.
73 00:04:18,300 --> 00:04:20,700 And that are obvious that we need to do first.
74 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:22,900 So instead of promising everything to everyone,
75 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,220 we promised a few very specific things.
76 00:04:25,300 --> 00:04:27,420 And we actually managed to do a lot of it.
77 00:04:27,580 --> 00:04:29,840 That's what we should have done in 2015.
78 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,340 And of course, that's why we're failing badly here in 2026.
79 00:04:33,580 --> 00:04:35,580 So simply put, we overreached.
80 00:04:35,580 --> 00:04:36,780 Yes, yes.
81 00:04:37,020 --> 00:04:38,860 And, you know, it's not surprising.
82 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,340 If you ask everyone, what do you want to do?
83 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,620 And there's no sort of budgetary limit.
84 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,480 You obviously want to say, well, we should do all good things.
85 00:04:46,700 --> 00:04:48,240 And that was essentially what happened.
86 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:53,460 So this was set by about 80 UN ambassadors in New York
87 00:04:53,460 --> 00:04:55,180 over a period of about a year.
88 00:04:55,780 --> 00:04:58,080 And I went to meet with a lot of them,
89 00:04:58,140 --> 00:05:00,260 about a third of them individually in New York.
90 00:05:00,580 --> 00:05:02,100 And I tried to tell them,
91 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,820 please, please, please don't promise everything to everyone.
92 00:05:04,820 --> 00:05:05,480 But of course,
93 00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:08,960 their goal was just to put in as many nice words in the document.
94 00:05:09,060 --> 00:05:11,340 It's a really long and very boring document.
95 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,600 But the reality is when you promise everything to everyone,
96 00:05:14,900 --> 00:05:15,680 you will fail.
97 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:20,280 And right now we are on the schedule,
98 00:05:20,460 --> 00:05:23,160 on the timetable with about 20% of them, I think.
99 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:23,640 Yes.
100 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:26,740 And there are some who is stagnant
101 00:05:26,740 --> 00:05:28,680 and some are moving backwards, actually.
102 00:05:28,940 --> 00:05:29,300 Yes, yes.
103 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:34,260 So there is one measure of how well we're doing.
104 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:35,560 And it's very, very hard.
105 00:05:35,580 --> 00:05:37,600 It's very hard to do because it's so many different targets.
106 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:42,040 But it seems to indicate that right now we're going to be 50 years late.
107 00:05:42,140 --> 00:05:46,240 We're going to be done in 2089 instead of 2030.
108 00:05:46,700 --> 00:05:48,300 So, yeah, we're a little behind.
109 00:05:48,580 --> 00:05:48,640 Okay.
110 00:05:49,380 --> 00:05:53,560 And one of your main argument is that we need to get our priorities right.
111 00:05:53,820 --> 00:05:57,560 We have to, given the limited resources,
112 00:05:57,860 --> 00:06:00,820 where can every penny do the most good?
113 00:06:01,420 --> 00:06:03,020 And what is the answer to that?
114 00:06:03,020 --> 00:06:05,160 When it comes to cost-benefit?
115 00:06:05,580 --> 00:06:06,580 What is the analysis?
116 00:06:06,580 --> 00:06:11,180 So, I actually just gave you a book that gives you that answer.
117 00:06:11,180 --> 00:06:12,180 I have it in my hand.
118 00:06:12,180 --> 00:06:13,180 Yes.
119 00:06:13,180 --> 00:06:15,580 So, we worked together with more than 100 economists,
120 00:06:15,580 --> 00:06:18,580 world's top economists and several Nobel laureates,
121 00:06:18,580 --> 00:06:21,580 to try to figure out, of all the things we promised,
122 00:06:21,580 --> 00:06:24,580 which ones can you spend a kronor,
123 00:06:24,580 --> 00:06:27,580 or more realistically, a couple hundred million kronor,
124 00:06:27,580 --> 00:06:30,580 and do the most good for every kronor spent?
125 00:06:30,580 --> 00:06:32,580 And this should be an obvious thing, right?
126 00:06:32,580 --> 00:06:34,580 I mean, we do this all the time.
127 00:06:34,580 --> 00:06:35,580 Yes.
128 00:06:35,580 --> 00:06:36,580 In our private lives.
129 00:06:36,580 --> 00:06:38,580 I don't know your life,
130 00:06:38,580 --> 00:06:41,580 but I'm assuming that your kids want a new bike,
131 00:06:41,580 --> 00:06:43,580 and you also want to go on a vacation,
132 00:06:43,580 --> 00:06:44,580 and maybe the roof is leaking,
133 00:06:44,580 --> 00:06:46,580 and there's all kinds of things.
134 00:06:46,580 --> 00:06:50,580 And you always have to make hard choices with your limited resources.
135 00:06:50,580 --> 00:06:52,580 Again, I'm assuming you're not a billionaire.
136 00:06:52,580 --> 00:06:54,580 No, I'm not.
137 00:06:54,580 --> 00:06:58,580 So, we have to make tough choices.
138 00:06:58,580 --> 00:07:00,580 And so, we look at how much is the benefit,
139 00:07:00,580 --> 00:07:02,580 how much is this going to cost,
140 00:07:02,580 --> 00:07:04,580 and we make sort of a fairly simple equation
141 00:07:04,580 --> 00:07:07,580 of where can I get the most bang for my kronor.
142 00:07:07,580 --> 00:07:10,580 And this is also what we teach our kids.
143 00:07:10,580 --> 00:07:13,580 If you want a new bike, you want new Pokémon cards, whatever,
144 00:07:13,580 --> 00:07:17,580 well, do an analysis, cost-benefit analysis.
145 00:07:17,580 --> 00:07:23,270 Lannebo hjälper dig att ha kontroll över din framtid.
146 00:07:23,270 --> 00:07:25,270 Låt dina pengar växa i din takt
147 00:07:25,270 --> 00:07:28,270 på ett sätt som gör morgondagen ljusare.
148 00:07:28,270 --> 00:07:31,270 Lannebos erfarna kapital- och relationsförvaltare
149 00:07:31,270 --> 00:07:33,270 står redo att guida dig, men kom ihåg
150 00:07:33,270 --> 00:07:35,270 att investeringar innebär en risk.
151 00:07:36,270 --> 00:07:39,270 Upptäck hela vårt fondutbud på lannebo.se.
152 00:08:06,270 --> 00:08:09,270 Vi tittar både på finansiella fördelar,
153 00:08:09,270 --> 00:08:12,270 men vi tittar också på miljö- och sociala fördelar,
154 00:08:12,270 --> 00:08:14,270 människor som inte dör, till exempel.
155 00:08:14,270 --> 00:08:18,270 Men det är de bästa sakerna vi kan göra,
156 00:08:18,270 --> 00:08:21,270 och vi identifierade 12 av dessa saker.
157 00:08:21,270 --> 00:08:24,270 Låt mig bara ge dig några exempel från boken
158 00:08:24,270 --> 00:08:26,270 och från analysen.
159 00:08:26,270 --> 00:08:28,270 Det berättar till dig, till exempel,
160 00:08:28,270 --> 00:08:30,270 att vi kan göra enormt mycket bra
161 00:08:30,270 --> 00:08:32,270 för barnbarns och barnbarns hälsa.
162 00:08:32,270 --> 00:08:34,270 Så, en av de saker vi inte tänker på här i The Rich World,
163 00:08:34,270 --> 00:08:36,270 är att vi kan göra mycket bra för barnbarns och barnbarns hälsa.
164 00:08:36,270 --> 00:08:40,270 Det viktigaste dagarna i en kvinnors liv
165 00:08:40,270 --> 00:08:42,270 i den största delen av världen
166 00:08:42,270 --> 00:08:44,270 är den dag hon föds.
167 00:08:44,270 --> 00:08:46,270 Det är helt galet.
168 00:08:46,270 --> 00:08:48,270 Det var så här tidigare, men det är inte längre så.
169 00:08:48,270 --> 00:08:50,270 För vi vet hur vi ska förhandla det här.
170 00:08:50,270 --> 00:08:52,270 Hur ska vi förhandla det?
171 00:08:52,270 --> 00:08:54,270 Vi har faktiskt en väldigt billig sätt
172 00:08:54,270 --> 00:08:56,270 att förhandla de flesta av det.
173 00:08:56,270 --> 00:08:58,270 Du måste få kvinnan in i en utbildning,
174 00:08:58,270 --> 00:09:00,270 för de flesta födelser går bra,
175 00:09:00,270 --> 00:09:02,270 men om de går fel,
176 00:09:02,270 --> 00:09:04,270 så går de ofta dramatiskt fel.
177 00:09:04,270 --> 00:09:06,270 Så du måste vara i en institution
178 00:09:06,270 --> 00:09:08,270 där de kan förhandla det här.
179 00:09:08,270 --> 00:09:10,270 Och om du är där måste du också ha
180 00:09:10,270 --> 00:09:12,270 väldigt enkelt saker som fri vatten,
181 00:09:12,270 --> 00:09:14,270 antiseptiker,
182 00:09:14,270 --> 00:09:16,270 du måste ha en resuscitator om barnen inte kan forna.
183 00:09:16,270 --> 00:09:18,270 Det händer faktiskt att även här i Europa
184 00:09:18,270 --> 00:09:20,270 5% av alla barn
185 00:09:20,270 --> 00:09:22,270 inte fornar.
186 00:09:22,270 --> 00:09:24,270 De behöver positiv luftpressur,
187 00:09:24,270 --> 00:09:26,270 en liten ballong,
188 00:09:26,270 --> 00:09:28,270 i deras lungar.
189 00:09:28,270 --> 00:09:30,270 Det är en väldigt enkel procedur,
190 00:09:30,270 --> 00:09:32,270 men om du inte har den, så dör barnen.
191 00:09:32,270 --> 00:09:34,270 Det vi hittar är,
192 00:09:34,270 --> 00:09:36,270 att det är en viktig sak att göra,
193 00:09:36,270 --> 00:09:38,270 som World Health Organization
194 00:09:38,270 --> 00:09:40,270 förväntar sig att alla borde göra.
195 00:09:40,270 --> 00:09:42,270 Om vi kan gå från 2 tredjedelar av alla kvinnor
196 00:09:42,270 --> 00:09:44,270 som går in i institutioner till 90%,
197 00:09:44,270 --> 00:09:46,270 och de här institutionerna
198 00:09:46,270 --> 00:09:48,270 är lite bättre utrustade.
199 00:09:48,270 --> 00:09:50,270 Vi pratar inte om fantastiska sjukhus,
200 00:09:50,270 --> 00:09:52,270 vi pratar bara om lite bättre.
201 00:09:52,270 --> 00:09:54,270 Vi förväntar oss för ungefär 3 biljoner dollar per år.
202 00:09:54,270 --> 00:09:56,270 Så ingenting,
203 00:09:56,270 --> 00:09:58,270 inte något du eller jag har,
204 00:09:58,270 --> 00:10:00,270 men en väldigt liten mängd pengar
205 00:10:00,270 --> 00:10:02,270 i det internationella området.
206 00:10:02,270 --> 00:10:04,270 Vi kan skapa
207 00:10:04,270 --> 00:10:06,270 166 000 mamma
208 00:10:06,270 --> 00:10:08,270 som dör varje år.
209 00:10:08,270 --> 00:10:10,270 Det är mer än hälften av alla mamma
210 00:10:10,270 --> 00:10:12,270 som dör varje år.
211 00:10:12,270 --> 00:10:14,270 Och vi kan skapa 1,2 miljoner barn.
212 00:10:14,270 --> 00:10:16,270 Det här är en av de bästa sakerna vi kan göra.
213 00:10:16,270 --> 00:10:18,270 Vi förväntar oss för varje krona.
214 00:10:18,270 --> 00:10:20,270 Du kan göra 87 kronor tillgängligt.
215 00:10:20,270 --> 00:10:22,270 Och det här är bara en av de 12 sakerna.
216 00:10:22,270 --> 00:10:24,270 Vi tittar på utbildning,
217 00:10:24,270 --> 00:10:26,270 där du kan göra
218 00:10:26,270 --> 00:10:28,270 väldigt enkelt och effektivt saker
219 00:10:28,270 --> 00:10:30,270 som för väldigt lite pengar
220 00:10:30,270 --> 00:10:32,270 tillgängligt för mycket bättre utbildade barn.
221 00:10:32,270 --> 00:10:34,270 Vi kan kanske tala om det.
222 00:10:34,270 --> 00:10:36,270 Vi kan tala om tuberkulosis,
223 00:10:36,270 --> 00:10:38,270 malaria, tydliga sjukdomar
224 00:10:38,270 --> 00:10:40,270 för att ta hand om vaccineringar.
225 00:10:40,270 --> 00:10:42,270 Men det är också något om att
226 00:10:42,270 --> 00:10:44,270 göra så att folk har fler möjligheter
227 00:10:44,270 --> 00:10:46,270 i dåliga världar,
228 00:10:46,270 --> 00:10:48,270 som landtänjereform.
229 00:10:48,270 --> 00:10:50,270 För de flesta arbetar de i akrokultur.
230 00:10:50,270 --> 00:10:52,270 Och många vet inte
231 00:10:52,270 --> 00:10:54,270 om de egentligen äger landet.
232 00:10:54,270 --> 00:10:56,270 För det finns inget bra landregistering.
233 00:10:56,270 --> 00:10:58,270 Ungefär en biljon människor på planeten
234 00:10:58,270 --> 00:11:00,270 tror att de i de nästa fem åren
235 00:11:00,270 --> 00:11:02,270 kommer att bli evigterade från landet.
236 00:11:02,270 --> 00:11:04,270 Om du tänker så,
237 00:11:04,270 --> 00:11:06,270 så kommer du inte att diga en vägg
238 00:11:06,270 --> 00:11:08,270 eller göra irrigationer
239 00:11:08,270 --> 00:11:10,270 eller planera orkester så att trädet
240 00:11:10,270 --> 00:11:12,270 bara kommer att blomna och ge frukt
241 00:11:12,270 --> 00:11:14,270 i fem till tio år.
242 00:11:14,270 --> 00:11:16,270 Du kommer bara att göra vad du kan
243 00:11:16,270 --> 00:11:18,270 för nästa år.
244 00:11:18,270 --> 00:11:20,270 I svenska kallar vi detta
245 00:11:20,270 --> 00:11:22,270 lågt hängande frukt.
246 00:11:22,270 --> 00:11:24,270 Varför är det inte redan gjort?
247 00:11:24,270 --> 00:11:26,270 Den korta frågan är
248 00:11:26,270 --> 00:11:28,270 att det är lite som är redan gjort.
249 00:11:28,270 --> 00:11:30,270 Men det är för att vi är
250 00:11:30,270 --> 00:11:32,270 vi vill göra allt.
251 00:11:32,270 --> 00:11:34,270 Så när du pratar med många politiker
252 00:11:34,270 --> 00:11:36,270 de gillar att säga
253 00:11:36,270 --> 00:11:38,270 jag vill göra alla goda saker.
254 00:11:38,270 --> 00:11:40,270 För det låter som om de gör mer.
255 00:11:40,270 --> 00:11:42,270 Så de säger, jag vill göra något
256 00:11:42,270 --> 00:11:44,270 som hjälper kvinnor.
257 00:11:44,270 --> 00:11:46,270 Men jag vill också hjälpa kvinnor.
258 00:11:46,270 --> 00:11:48,270 Jag vill också hjälpa dem
259 00:11:48,270 --> 00:11:50,270 med barn.
260 00:11:50,270 --> 00:11:52,270 Och kanske vill vi se till att de är
261 00:11:52,270 --> 00:11:54,270 indigna människor.
262 00:11:54,270 --> 00:11:56,270 Och kanske vill vi se till att de är illiterata.
263 00:11:56,270 --> 00:11:58,270 Du lägger upp alla dessa boxar
264 00:11:58,270 --> 00:12:00,270 och du tar alla dessa olika saker.
265 00:12:00,270 --> 00:12:02,270 Det låter bra och det ser bra ut
266 00:12:02,270 --> 00:12:04,270 men det är inte så effektivt.
267 00:12:04,270 --> 00:12:06,270 När du säger, som jag nämnde
268 00:12:06,270 --> 00:12:08,270 att vi behöver
269 00:12:08,270 --> 00:12:10,270 det som World Health Organization kallar
270 00:12:10,270 --> 00:12:12,270 B-Monks, alltså grundläggande obstetrik
271 00:12:12,270 --> 00:12:14,270 och nybörjande hälsa
272 00:12:14,270 --> 00:12:16,270 i sjukhus och få kvinnor in i institutioner
273 00:12:16,270 --> 00:12:18,270 för att föda. Det låter inte så sexigt.
274 00:12:18,270 --> 00:12:20,270 Och det är bara en sak.
275 00:12:20,270 --> 00:12:22,270 Du vill ta många boxar.
276 00:12:22,270 --> 00:12:24,270 Du vill få många nyheter
277 00:12:24,270 --> 00:12:26,270 och så gör du lite av allt
278 00:12:26,270 --> 00:12:28,270 precis som
279 00:12:28,270 --> 00:12:30,270 Sustainable Development Goals gjorde.
280 00:12:30,270 --> 00:12:32,270 Och på andra sidan
281 00:12:32,270 --> 00:12:34,270 av spektrumet, är det saker som görs idag
282 00:12:34,270 --> 00:12:36,270 som är kallt men
283 00:12:36,270 --> 00:12:38,270 inte så bra när du
284 00:12:38,270 --> 00:12:40,270 examinerar dem?
285 00:12:40,270 --> 00:12:42,270 Vi gör många saker som är
286 00:12:42,270 --> 00:12:44,270 lite bra. Jag är säker på att
287 00:12:44,270 --> 00:12:46,270 vi också gör saker som är riktigt, riktigt dåliga.
288 00:12:46,270 --> 00:12:48,270 Men vi tittar inte på dem.
289 00:12:48,270 --> 00:12:50,270 Så vi tittar typiskt på saker som
290 00:12:50,270 --> 00:12:52,270 är tillräckligt bra.
291 00:12:52,270 --> 00:12:54,270 Så vi hittar att det finns många saker
292 00:12:54,270 --> 00:12:56,270 du kan göra som ger
293 00:12:56,270 --> 00:12:58,270 två, tre, fyra kronor tillbaka
294 00:12:58,270 --> 00:13:00,270 på kronan. Det är en fin sak.
295 00:13:00,270 --> 00:13:02,270 Och jag är glad att vi gör det.
296 00:13:02,270 --> 00:13:04,270 En tydlig sak som vi har haft
297 00:13:04,270 --> 00:13:06,270 många konversationer med indierna
298 00:13:06,270 --> 00:13:08,270 om är vatten
299 00:13:08,270 --> 00:13:10,270 och sanitering. Så många människor
300 00:13:10,270 --> 00:13:12,270 säger att det här är en av de viktigaste sakerna
301 00:13:12,270 --> 00:13:14,270 att göra. För det är tydligt att om du inte har
302 00:13:14,270 --> 00:13:16,270 vatten, så dör du.
303 00:13:16,270 --> 00:13:18,270 Men det här är också varför alla
304 00:13:18,270 --> 00:13:20,270 som är levande i världen faktiskt
305 00:13:20,270 --> 00:13:22,270 har vatten. Så när du pratar om
306 00:13:22,270 --> 00:13:24,270 att få mer vatten, så är det mycket
307 00:13:24,270 --> 00:13:26,270 mer om att få mer nödvändig vatten.
308 00:13:26,270 --> 00:13:28,270 Så det här är
309 00:13:28,270 --> 00:13:30,270 och jag berättar inte det. Det är väldigt
310 00:13:30,270 --> 00:13:32,270 viktigt att kunna få vatten
311 00:13:32,270 --> 00:13:34,270 eftersom det betyder att särskilt kvinnor
312 00:13:34,270 --> 00:13:36,270 och särskilt kvinnor
313 00:13:36,270 --> 00:13:38,270 inte måste åka långt
314 00:13:38,270 --> 00:13:40,270 för att få vatten tillbaka
315 00:13:40,270 --> 00:13:42,270 så att mamma och pappa kan använda det.
316 00:13:42,270 --> 00:13:44,270 Men om vi tittar på kostnaderna
317 00:13:44,270 --> 00:13:46,270 särskilt om vi tittar på
318 00:13:46,270 --> 00:13:48,270 sanitering som blir väldigt
319 00:13:48,270 --> 00:13:50,270 kallt om man vill hålla den
320 00:13:50,270 --> 00:13:52,270 så kommer du att få en kostnadsgräns
321 00:13:52,270 --> 00:13:54,270 av ungefär tre. Så för varje
322 00:13:54,270 --> 00:13:56,270 krona som är betalt så gör du tre kronor
323 00:13:56,270 --> 00:13:58,270 av bra. Och många av
324 00:13:58,270 --> 00:14:00,270 dessa är inte gjort bra.
325 00:14:00,270 --> 00:14:02,270 Så du ska bara titta på
326 00:14:02,270 --> 00:14:04,270 en liten litarin för att berätta till
327 00:14:04,270 --> 00:14:06,270 myndigheterna och kanske berätta till
328 00:14:06,270 --> 00:14:08,270 svenska myndigheterna också. Vi har gjort något
329 00:14:08,270 --> 00:14:10,270 för sanitering så du måste ha en kolla.
330 00:14:10,270 --> 00:14:12,270 Men sen är det aldrig används för det
331 00:14:12,270 --> 00:14:14,270 smäller dåligt. Det är inte
332 00:14:14,270 --> 00:14:16,270 öppnat tillräckligt
333 00:14:16,270 --> 00:14:18,270 och så vidare. Så det finns många sätt
334 00:14:18,270 --> 00:14:20,270 att saker inte gör så mycket
335 00:14:20,270 --> 00:14:22,270 bra. Återigen, jag säger inte
336 00:14:22,270 --> 00:14:24,270 att jag är glad att vi lever i en värld
337 00:14:24,270 --> 00:14:26,270 där det också finns människor som gör det.
338 00:14:26,270 --> 00:14:28,270 Men jag säger bara att när vi inte har
339 00:14:28,270 --> 00:14:30,270 något bra så ska vi kanske
340 00:14:30,270 --> 00:14:32,270 börja fokusera på att göra det
341 00:14:32,270 --> 00:14:34,270 jättekulaste först.
342 00:14:34,270 --> 00:14:36,270 Hur är du vänlig med
343 00:14:36,270 --> 00:14:38,270 den här politiken om framtiden i Sverige?
344 00:14:38,270 --> 00:14:40,270 Jag undrar om vi gör bra just nu?
345 00:14:40,270 --> 00:14:42,270 Jag bor faktiskt
346 00:14:42,270 --> 00:14:44,270 i Sverige. Jag bor i södra Sverige
347 00:14:44,270 --> 00:14:46,270 på andra sidan av
348 00:14:46,270 --> 00:14:48,270 Copenhagen. Så jag vet
349 00:14:48,270 --> 00:14:50,270 lite om det.
350 00:14:50,270 --> 00:14:52,270 Om du hade ministern för framtiden
351 00:14:52,270 --> 00:14:54,270 Benny Mendoza här i studion, vad skulle du
352 00:14:54,270 --> 00:14:56,270 ge honom?
353 00:14:56,270 --> 00:14:58,270 Jag hade faktiskt
354 00:14:58,270 --> 00:15:00,270 plötsligt träffat honom förra året
355 00:15:00,270 --> 00:15:02,270 och jag gav honom boken.
356 00:15:02,270 --> 00:15:04,270 Och han gillade verkligen
357 00:15:04,270 --> 00:15:06,270 idén. Men minns du, han är
358 00:15:06,270 --> 00:15:08,270 också politiker.
359 00:15:08,270 --> 00:15:10,270 Så du gav honom den korta versionen?
360 00:15:10,270 --> 00:15:12,270 Jag gav honom både den korta och den långa
361 00:15:12,270 --> 00:15:14,270 men jag är ganska säker på att den korta
362 00:15:14,270 --> 00:15:16,270 versionen var mer populär.
363 00:15:16,270 --> 00:15:18,270 Björn gav mig en bok och en liten
364 00:15:18,270 --> 00:15:20,270 färg så att även politikerna kan
365 00:15:20,270 --> 00:15:22,270 läsa den. Eller åtminstone är de
366 00:15:22,270 --> 00:15:24,270 mer möjliga att få en glans på den.
367 00:15:24,270 --> 00:15:26,270 Och han gillar verkligen
368 00:15:26,270 --> 00:15:28,270 att göra effektiva
369 00:15:28,270 --> 00:15:30,270 politiker. Han instruerade
370 00:15:30,270 --> 00:15:32,270 CETA väldigt tydligt
371 00:15:32,270 --> 00:15:34,270 att spara deras pengar mer effektivt.
372 00:15:34,270 --> 00:15:36,270 Men det finns också
373 00:15:36,270 --> 00:15:38,270 alla de andra pushen. Och vi får det
374 00:15:38,270 --> 00:15:40,270 från både Europa och
375 00:15:40,270 --> 00:15:42,270 Kanada och Australien och Nya Zeeland.
376 00:15:42,270 --> 00:15:44,270 Så det är nästan alla rika länder.
377 00:15:44,270 --> 00:15:46,270 Annars är du Trump där du
378 00:15:46,270 --> 00:15:48,270 bara förstör allt. Men
379 00:15:48,270 --> 00:15:50,270 även i andra länder
380 00:15:50,270 --> 00:15:52,270 som Norge och andra länder
381 00:15:52,270 --> 00:15:54,270 så spenderar vi också mycket pengar på Ukraina.
382 00:15:54,270 --> 00:15:56,270 Vi spenderar mycket pengar på flyktingar
383 00:15:56,270 --> 00:15:58,270 så det pengar som
384 00:15:58,270 --> 00:16:00,270 faktiskt går till dåliga människor
385 00:16:00,270 --> 00:16:02,270 är lite för restriktivt.
386 00:16:02,270 --> 00:16:04,270 Och sedan inom det så händer vi
387 00:16:04,270 --> 00:16:06,270 att göra många olika saker.
388 00:16:06,270 --> 00:16:08,270 Och så tror jag att
389 00:16:08,270 --> 00:16:10,270 Benjamin Dusser har hjärtat på rätt
390 00:16:10,270 --> 00:16:12,270 plats. Men jag är inte säker på att han har
391 00:16:12,270 --> 00:16:14,270 förhållit sig till att få
392 00:16:14,270 --> 00:16:16,270 allt detta tillbaka i ordning. Och igen
393 00:16:16,270 --> 00:16:18,270 det är en av skälen till
394 00:16:18,270 --> 00:16:20,270 att vi har den här konversationen. Vi måste
395 00:16:20,270 --> 00:16:22,270 göra det mer politiskt palatabelt.
396 00:16:22,270 --> 00:16:24,270 Att inte säga att jag vill göra allt
397 00:16:24,270 --> 00:16:26,270 men att säga att jag bara vill göra några saker
398 00:16:26,270 --> 00:16:28,270 riktigt riktigt bra.
399 00:16:28,270 --> 00:16:30,270 Det här problemet med dåliga prioriteter
400 00:16:30,270 --> 00:16:32,270 och övergångar, har det varit bättre
401 00:16:32,270 --> 00:16:34,270 eller värre
402 00:16:34,270 --> 00:16:36,270 under tiden?
403 00:16:36,270 --> 00:16:38,270 Jag tror att vi alltid har haft det här problemet.
404 00:16:38,270 --> 00:16:40,270 Jag menar, politikerna
405 00:16:40,270 --> 00:16:42,270 och politiken är inte förhållandevis
406 00:16:42,270 --> 00:16:44,270 om att göra bra. Det handlar om att bli
407 00:16:44,270 --> 00:16:46,270 re-elekterad. Och det som får dig
408 00:16:46,270 --> 00:16:48,270 re-elekterad är inte nödvändigtvis
409 00:16:48,270 --> 00:16:50,270 vad som fungerar riktigt bra. Det är rätt
410 00:16:50,270 --> 00:16:52,270 även i Sverige. Men det är tydligtvis
411 00:16:52,270 --> 00:16:54,270 mycket mer rätt när vi pratar om
412 00:16:54,270 --> 00:16:56,270 utvecklingsuppgifter
413 00:16:56,270 --> 00:16:58,270 för det finns inget tydligt feedback.
414 00:16:58,270 --> 00:17:00,270 Vi vet inte de människor som CETA hjälper
415 00:17:00,270 --> 00:17:02,270 eftersom de är långt, långt bort.
416 00:17:02,270 --> 00:17:04,270 Så vi lär oss av berättelser från
417 00:17:04,270 --> 00:17:06,270 dig och andra journalister som säger
418 00:17:06,270 --> 00:17:08,270 att det här var en riktigt bra grej
419 00:17:08,270 --> 00:17:10,270 eftersom nu den här personen
420 00:17:10,270 --> 00:17:12,270 eller den här personen bor.
421 00:17:12,270 --> 00:17:14,270 Allt det pengar vi spenderar
422 00:17:14,270 --> 00:17:16,270 kommer att göra något bra, vilket är bra.
423 00:17:16,270 --> 00:17:18,270 Jag gör bara argumenten att vi
424 00:17:18,270 --> 00:17:20,270 borde spara pengar där det inte bara
425 00:17:20,270 --> 00:17:22,270 gör något bra, utan gör en massiv
426 00:17:22,270 --> 00:17:24,270 mängd bra. Och det är en mycket
427 00:17:24,270 --> 00:17:26,270 hård argument. Så jag tror att vi alltid har varit
428 00:17:26,270 --> 00:17:28,270 dåliga vid att göra det här och jag tror att vi alltid
429 00:17:28,270 --> 00:17:30,270 behöver någon som mig för att fortsätta säga
430 00:17:30,270 --> 00:17:32,270 att vi ska göra bättre.
431 00:17:32,270 --> 00:17:34,270 Kan vi alltid skapa en kost-benefit-analys?
432 00:17:34,270 --> 00:17:36,270 Jag menar, den tydliga
433 00:17:36,270 --> 00:17:38,270 objektionen är att det finns
434 00:17:38,270 --> 00:17:40,270 vissa värden som inte kan
435 00:17:40,270 --> 00:17:42,270 mäts i kronor eller dollar.
436 00:17:42,270 --> 00:17:44,270 Några humanitära värden
437 00:17:44,270 --> 00:17:46,270 som du vet.
438 00:17:46,270 --> 00:17:48,270 Vad tänker du om det?
439 00:17:48,270 --> 00:17:50,270 Först och främst, det här är en imprecis
440 00:17:50,270 --> 00:17:52,270 vetenskap. Vi vet inte
441 00:17:52,270 --> 00:17:54,270 mycket, vi vet inte exakt
442 00:17:54,270 --> 00:17:56,270 vad som kommer att användas
443 00:17:56,270 --> 00:17:58,270 och hur det kommer att användas.
444 00:17:58,270 --> 00:18:00,270 Så när jag säger till dig att sanitation
445 00:18:00,270 --> 00:18:02,270 ger dig 3 dollar tillbaka i dollar eller
446 00:18:02,270 --> 00:18:04,270 3 kronor tillbaka i kronor, eller
447 00:18:04,270 --> 00:18:06,270 matern och barns
448 00:18:06,270 --> 00:18:08,270 hälsa ger oss 87
449 00:18:08,270 --> 00:18:10,270 kronor tillbaka i kronor.
450 00:18:10,270 --> 00:18:12,270 Det är en hård estimation.
451 00:18:12,270 --> 00:18:14,270 Jag skulle troligen estimera att
452 00:18:14,270 --> 00:18:16,270 det är rätt inom en faktor av 2
453 00:18:16,270 --> 00:18:18,270 eller något. Men det är en ganska bra
454 00:18:18,270 --> 00:18:20,270 estimation. Men den andra delen
455 00:18:20,270 --> 00:18:22,270 av frågan du hade, är det saker som inte finns
456 00:18:22,270 --> 00:18:24,270 där? Absolut. Så, titta.
457 00:18:24,270 --> 00:18:26,270 Vi tar tillbaka alla kostnader
458 00:18:26,270 --> 00:18:28,270 och alla fördelar. Så det här är
459 00:18:28,270 --> 00:18:30,270 inte bara en finansiell analys.
460 00:18:30,270 --> 00:18:32,270 Det här handlar också om sociala och
461 00:18:32,270 --> 00:18:34,270 miljöfrågor. Så vi
462 00:18:34,270 --> 00:18:36,270 försöker ta in alla dessa kostnader.
463 00:18:36,270 --> 00:18:38,270 Men minns du, det här är inte det enda
464 00:18:38,270 --> 00:18:40,270 som människan vill. Vi vill också
465 00:18:40,270 --> 00:18:42,270 till exempel
466 00:18:42,270 --> 00:18:44,270 enlighet. Eller vi vill, som du nämnde,
467 00:18:44,270 --> 00:18:46,270 mänskliga rättigheter. Det här är saker som
468 00:18:46,270 --> 00:18:48,270 inte finns i
469 00:18:48,270 --> 00:18:50,270 kost-fördel-analysen. Så
470 00:18:50,270 --> 00:18:52,270 i ett sätt, om du vill, vi är
471 00:18:52,270 --> 00:18:54,270 de som ger samhället
472 00:18:54,270 --> 00:18:56,270 ett menyn, men ett menyn med
473 00:18:56,270 --> 00:18:58,270 priser och mängder. Vi
474 00:18:58,270 --> 00:19:00,270 ger dig en känsla av, om du spenderar pengar här
475 00:19:00,270 --> 00:19:02,270 så får du så mycket bra, och det kostar
476 00:19:02,270 --> 00:19:04,270 dig så mycket. Men om du
477 00:19:04,270 --> 00:19:06,270 vill göra det, är det förstås en politisk
478 00:19:06,270 --> 00:19:08,270 fråga. Det här är inte
479 00:19:08,270 --> 00:19:10,270 en ekonom som säger, det är så världen ska vara.
480 00:19:10,270 --> 00:19:12,270 Men det hjälper politiker,
481 00:19:12,270 --> 00:19:14,270 politiker och vokaler
482 00:19:14,270 --> 00:19:16,270 att göra bättre beslut.
483 00:19:16,270 --> 00:19:18,270 Men igen, jag skulle tänka
484 00:19:18,270 --> 00:19:20,270 att när vi pratar om enlighet,
485 00:19:20,270 --> 00:19:22,270 de politiker som vi
486 00:19:22,270 --> 00:19:24,270 använder är typiskt
487 00:19:24,270 --> 00:19:26,270 de som hjälper de svåraste,
488 00:19:26,270 --> 00:19:28,270 de svåraste. Till exempel
489 00:19:28,270 --> 00:19:30,270 när vi pratar om tuberkulosis,
490 00:19:30,270 --> 00:19:32,270 en av skälen till att tuberkulosis inte
491 00:19:32,270 --> 00:19:34,270 har blivit lösad, är att det
492 00:19:34,270 --> 00:19:36,270 hittar väldigt svåra människor.
493 00:19:36,270 --> 00:19:38,270 Människor i slumområden,
494 00:19:38,270 --> 00:19:40,270 i fängelser, i migrantkommuner,
495 00:19:40,270 --> 00:19:42,270 i mineringar, den typen av saker.
496 00:19:42,270 --> 00:19:44,270 Människor som är utanför en mycket
497 00:19:44,270 --> 00:19:46,270 politisk samhälle. Så de ofta
498 00:19:46,270 --> 00:19:48,270 inte väljer, och därför
499 00:19:48,270 --> 00:19:50,270 de inte får någon sjukvård.
500 00:19:50,270 --> 00:19:52,270 Vi kan hjälpa med det,
501 00:19:52,270 --> 00:19:54,270 men det hjälper exakt med
502 00:19:54,270 --> 00:19:56,270 enlighet också. Så det är väldigt
503 00:19:56,270 --> 00:19:58,270 möjligt att mycket av det överlappnar,
504 00:19:58,270 --> 00:20:00,270 precis som när vi pratar om
505 00:20:00,270 --> 00:20:02,270 matern- och ungdomsvård. Människor som inte
506 00:20:02,270 --> 00:20:04,270 går till institutioner, människan som
507 00:20:04,270 --> 00:20:06,270 dör i sina första 30 dagar,
508 00:20:06,270 --> 00:20:08,270 är väldigt möjligt inte
509 00:20:08,270 --> 00:20:10,270 de ryskaste, men de svåraste människorna.
510 00:20:10,270 --> 00:20:12,270 Så igen, jag tror att många av de här
511 00:20:12,270 --> 00:20:14,270 överlappnar, men det är inte en precis
512 00:20:14,270 --> 00:20:16,270 överlappning. Så ja, det finns
513 00:20:16,270 --> 00:20:18,270 andra saker att titta på.
514 00:20:18,270 --> 00:20:20,270 Men igen, när du är
515 00:20:20,270 --> 00:20:22,270 upptäckt med en politik som gör
516 00:20:22,270 --> 00:20:24,270 tre kronor tillbaka och en som
517 00:20:24,270 --> 00:20:26,270 gör 87 kronor tillbaka,
518 00:20:26,270 --> 00:20:28,270 så finns det mycket
519 00:20:28,270 --> 00:20:30,270 förhållande
520 00:20:30,270 --> 00:20:32,270 för att
521 00:20:32,270 --> 00:20:34,270 göra det bästa.
522 00:20:34,270 --> 00:20:36,270 Vilka är
523 00:20:36,270 --> 00:20:38,270 förhoppningarna för framtiden?
524 00:20:38,270 --> 00:20:40,270 Är politikerna började få det?
525 00:20:40,270 --> 00:20:42,270 Är de mer på dörren nu än
526 00:20:42,270 --> 00:20:44,270 tio år sedan?
527 00:20:44,270 --> 00:20:46,270 Jag tror det. Två år sedan
528 00:20:46,270 --> 00:20:48,270 eller 11 år sedan
529 00:20:48,270 --> 00:20:50,270 beslutade alla politiker att vi
530 00:20:50,270 --> 00:20:52,270 skulle förvänta allt till alla,
531 00:20:52,270 --> 00:20:54,270 vilket inte fungerade. Vi kände redan
532 00:20:54,270 --> 00:20:56,270 att det inte fungerade. Men jag tror att
533 00:20:56,270 --> 00:20:58,270 fler människor förstår att
534 00:20:58,270 --> 00:21:00,270 det inte fungerar. Jag tror att
535 00:21:00,270 --> 00:21:02,270 många politiker hoppas att om vi förväntar
536 00:21:02,270 --> 00:21:04,270 stjärnorna, så vill alla
537 00:21:04,270 --> 00:21:06,270 ge mer utvecklingsuppgift.
538 00:21:06,270 --> 00:21:08,270 Men det är exakt det sista som sker.
539 00:21:08,270 --> 00:21:10,270 Vi har varit väldigt stängda
540 00:21:10,270 --> 00:21:12,270 och nu med Trump, men också
541 00:21:12,270 --> 00:21:14,270 Storbritannien, Tyskland,
542 00:21:14,270 --> 00:21:16,270 Frankrike, även Norge i en viss mån,
543 00:21:16,270 --> 00:21:18,270 och även Sverige,
544 00:21:18,270 --> 00:21:20,270 som är lite avslöjande.
545 00:21:20,270 --> 00:21:22,270 Ofta är det lite nedanför.
546 00:21:22,270 --> 00:21:24,270 Vi förstår att vi måste göra
547 00:21:24,270 --> 00:21:26,270 bättre, för vi har mindre och mindre resurser.
548 00:21:26,270 --> 00:21:28,270 Vi måste verkligen göra det bästa
549 00:21:28,270 --> 00:21:30,270 vi kan med varje Corona.
550 00:21:30,270 --> 00:21:32,270 Jag tror att det finns mycket mer intresse.
551 00:21:32,270 --> 00:21:34,270 Min hopp är att
552 00:21:34,270 --> 00:21:36,270 vi blir bättre på det här.
553 00:21:36,270 --> 00:21:38,270 Jag skulle vilja att vi bara
554 00:21:38,270 --> 00:21:40,270 gör de mest effektiva sakerna.
555 00:21:40,270 --> 00:21:42,270 Det kommer aldrig att hända, för det är inte så
556 00:21:42,270 --> 00:21:44,270 hur politiken fungerar. Men om vi kan
557 00:21:44,270 --> 00:21:46,270 förvänta folk att spela smartare,
558 00:21:46,270 --> 00:21:48,270 så skulle det vara bra.
559 00:21:48,270 --> 00:21:50,270 Kommer 2030 och vi får resultatet
560 00:21:50,270 --> 00:21:52,270 och ser att bara en fjärde eller
561 00:21:52,270 --> 00:21:54,270 fjärde av målen har mötts,
562 00:21:54,270 --> 00:21:56,270 hur ser du på effekten av det?
563 00:21:56,270 --> 00:21:58,270 Vad skulle du säga?
564 00:21:58,270 --> 00:22:00,270 Jag glömde ordet, men
565 00:22:00,270 --> 00:22:02,270 skulle vi bli bättre?
566 00:22:02,270 --> 00:22:04,270 Okej, ska vi vara glada eller tröja?
567 00:22:04,270 --> 00:22:06,270 Jag tror att en av
568 00:22:06,270 --> 00:22:08,270 sakerna som jag alltid pratar om,
569 00:22:08,270 --> 00:22:10,270 och jag tror att det finns mycket bra data för,
570 00:22:10,270 --> 00:22:12,270 är att världen är
571 00:22:12,270 --> 00:22:14,270 en plats som blir bättre och bättre.
572 00:22:14,270 --> 00:22:16,270 Vi har en tendens,
573 00:22:16,270 --> 00:22:18,270 när vi läser Svenska Dagbladet
574 00:22:18,270 --> 00:22:20,270 eller någon annan nyhetsutredning
575 00:22:20,270 --> 00:22:22,270 i världen, att ni är
576 00:22:22,270 --> 00:22:24,270 i världen för att
577 00:22:24,270 --> 00:22:26,270 ge oss en samling av de värsta sakerna
578 00:22:26,270 --> 00:22:28,270 som har hänt de senaste 24 timmarna.
579 00:22:28,270 --> 00:22:30,270 Det är ditt jobb.
580 00:22:30,270 --> 00:22:32,270 Vi får en känsla av att allt kommer tillbaka,
581 00:22:32,270 --> 00:22:34,270 men vi glömmer ofta att
582 00:22:34,270 --> 00:22:36,270 långsiktiga trender visar oss
583 00:22:36,270 --> 00:22:38,270 att saker blir bättre och bättre.
584 00:22:38,270 --> 00:22:40,270 Vi har lyft över en biljon
585 00:22:40,270 --> 00:22:42,270 av folk utifrån påverkan de senaste
586 00:22:42,270 --> 00:22:44,270 25 åren.
587 00:22:44,270 --> 00:22:46,270 Varje dag,
588 00:22:46,270 --> 00:22:48,270 varje 24 timmar,
589 00:22:48,270 --> 00:22:50,270 Svenska Dagbladet och alla andra nyhetsutredningar
590 00:22:50,270 --> 00:22:52,270 i världen kunde ha det som en headlines.
591 00:22:52,270 --> 00:22:54,270 138 000 människor
592 00:22:54,270 --> 00:22:56,270 har blivit utrymda av extremt påverkan.
593 00:22:56,270 --> 00:22:58,270 Varje dag i 25 år.
594 00:22:58,270 --> 00:23:00,270 Vi hör inte detta,
595 00:23:00,270 --> 00:23:02,270 men vi måste minnas att
596 00:23:02,270 --> 00:23:04,270 mindre människor dör, mindre barn dör.
597 00:23:04,270 --> 00:23:06,270 Vi har en mycket bättre
598 00:23:06,270 --> 00:23:08,270 utbildning och en mycket bättre
599 00:23:08,270 --> 00:23:10,270 möjlighet i många olika sätt.
600 00:23:10,270 --> 00:23:12,270 Vi har lyft, som jag sa, många folk
601 00:23:12,270 --> 00:23:14,270 utifrån påverkan.
602 00:23:14,270 --> 00:23:16,270 Kommer 2030,
603 00:23:16,270 --> 00:23:18,270 blir vi mest bättre.
604 00:23:18,270 --> 00:23:20,270 Men det riktiga utsläppet är att
605 00:23:20,270 --> 00:23:22,270 vi kunde ha varit ännu bättre.
606 00:23:22,270 --> 00:23:24,270 Vi kunde ha haft ännu mindre
607 00:23:24,270 --> 00:23:26,270 personer som dör.
608 00:23:26,270 --> 00:23:28,270 Vi kunde ha haft ännu mindre människor
609 00:23:28,270 --> 00:23:30,270 i extremt påverkan och så vidare.
610 00:23:30,270 --> 00:23:32,270 Så de riktiga utsläppen,
611 00:23:32,270 --> 00:23:34,270 vi kunde ha gjort bättre.
612 00:23:34,270 --> 00:23:36,270 Det betyder att vi måste
613 00:23:36,270 --> 00:23:38,270 säkerställa att vi inte
614 00:23:38,270 --> 00:23:40,270 gör samma fel som i 2045.
615 00:23:40,270 --> 00:23:42,270 Att vi ska göra alla dessa saker igen.
616 00:23:42,270 --> 00:23:44,270 Men mycket viktigare,
617 00:23:44,270 --> 00:23:46,270 det här är 2026.
618 00:23:46,270 --> 00:23:48,270 Vi ska göra en otrolig del
619 00:23:48,270 --> 00:23:50,270 i år och nästa år,
620 00:23:50,270 --> 00:23:52,270 inte vänta tills 2030.
621 00:23:52,270 --> 00:23:54,270 Varför har progressen slagit ner
622 00:23:54,270 --> 00:23:56,270 lite sen 2020?
623 00:23:56,270 --> 00:23:58,270 Ja.
624 00:23:58,270 --> 00:24:00,270 Och varför?
625 00:24:00,270 --> 00:24:02,270 För många skäl.
626 00:24:02,270 --> 00:24:04,270 Många av covid-problemen
627 00:24:04,270 --> 00:24:06,270 hittade utvecklingsvärlden
628 00:24:06,270 --> 00:24:08,270 mycket.
629 00:24:08,270 --> 00:24:10,270 Vi var väldigt oroliga
630 00:24:10,270 --> 00:24:12,270 för den rika världen och vi kunde
631 00:24:12,270 --> 00:24:14,270 förhålla oss till det.
632 00:24:14,270 --> 00:24:16,270 Många länder, inte Sverige
633 00:24:16,270 --> 00:24:18,270 men många länder beslutade
634 00:24:18,270 --> 00:24:20,270 att släppa nästan helt
635 00:24:20,270 --> 00:24:22,270 i förhållande till att
636 00:24:22,270 --> 00:24:24,270 försörja och säkerställa
637 00:24:24,270 --> 00:24:26,270 riktigt äldre människor,
638 00:24:26,270 --> 00:24:28,270 vilket är en konversation som har varit
639 00:24:28,270 --> 00:24:30,270 pågående, var det inte rätt beslut?
640 00:24:30,270 --> 00:24:32,270 Men åtminstone i en väldigt rik land
641 00:24:32,270 --> 00:24:34,270 där man har många äldre människor,
642 00:24:34,270 --> 00:24:36,270 det gör något sätt.
643 00:24:36,270 --> 00:24:38,270 Men tyvärr har de flesta
644 00:24:38,270 --> 00:24:40,270 dåliga länder i världen
645 00:24:40,270 --> 00:24:42,270 väldigt få äldre människor
646 00:24:42,270 --> 00:24:44,270 och kan inte förhålla sig
647 00:24:44,270 --> 00:24:46,270 att släppa ner dem.
648 00:24:46,270 --> 00:24:48,270 Men de släpper ändå ner
649 00:24:48,270 --> 00:24:50,270 sina skolor. Det betyder att
650 00:24:50,270 --> 00:24:52,270 det kommer att kosta mer än
651 00:24:52,270 --> 00:24:54,270 1,2 miljarder kronor per år
652 00:24:54,270 --> 00:24:56,270 under år 2040.
653 00:24:56,270 --> 00:24:58,270 Det betyder att skolbarn
654 00:24:58,270 --> 00:25:00,270 kommer att vara mindre utbildade.
655 00:25:00,270 --> 00:25:02,270 Det här är dyrt och vi måste
656 00:25:02,270 --> 00:25:04,270 gå tillbaka och försöka förhålla oss till det.
657 00:25:04,270 --> 00:25:06,270 En av sakerna som vi pratar om
658 00:25:06,270 --> 00:25:08,270 är att det finns väldigt smarta
659 00:25:08,270 --> 00:25:10,270 sätt att dramatiskt
660 00:25:10,270 --> 00:25:12,270 öka effektiviteten i skolan.
661 00:25:12,270 --> 00:25:14,270 Vi gör inte det så mycket.
662 00:25:14,270 --> 00:25:16,270 Det handlar om att få strukturerade
663 00:25:16,270 --> 00:25:18,270 lärarplaner och att få
664 00:25:18,270 --> 00:25:20,270 barn att lära sig på rätt nivå.
665 00:25:20,270 --> 00:25:22,270 Du kan göra det med en laptop
666 00:25:22,270 --> 00:25:24,270 eller en tablet
667 00:25:24,270 --> 00:25:26,270 med utbildningssoftwaren.
668 00:25:26,270 --> 00:25:28,270 Det är väldigt enkelt. Vi ska gå in
669 00:25:28,270 --> 00:25:30,270 och göra mycket mer av det.
670 00:25:30,270 --> 00:25:32,270 Det är en sätt att få världen
671 00:25:32,270 --> 00:25:34,270 ut ur ruttet.
672 00:25:34,270 --> 00:25:36,270 Men vi kommer inte att kunna
673 00:25:36,270 --> 00:25:38,270 förhålla oss till allt.
674 00:25:38,270 --> 00:25:40,270 Sveden kommer inte att kunna
675 00:25:40,270 --> 00:25:42,270 förhålla sig till allt.
676 00:25:42,270 --> 00:25:44,270 Men om vi börjar den här
677 00:25:44,270 --> 00:25:46,270 konversationen... Jag är faktiskt här för
678 00:25:46,270 --> 00:25:48,270 Bill Gates i Stockholm.
679 00:25:48,270 --> 00:25:50,270 En av sakerna han försöker för
680 00:25:50,270 --> 00:25:52,270 är de här effektiva sakerna.
681 00:25:52,270 --> 00:25:54,270 Jag skulle gärna
682 00:25:54,270 --> 00:25:56,270 göra mer om de effektiva
683 00:25:56,270 --> 00:25:58,270 sakerna. Jag tror att Sverige
684 00:25:58,270 --> 00:26:00,270 kan vara ett land
685 00:26:00,270 --> 00:26:02,270 som leder
686 00:26:02,270 --> 00:26:04,270 den här utmaningen i världen.
687 00:26:04,270 --> 00:26:06,270 Vi kommer inte att förhålla oss till allt,
688 00:26:06,270 --> 00:26:08,270 men vi kommer att förhålla oss till
689 00:26:08,270 --> 00:26:10,270 de viktigaste sakerna.
690 00:26:10,270 --> 00:26:12,270 Och tillbaka till min
691 00:26:12,270 --> 00:26:14,270 originella fråga. Covid var en
692 00:26:14,270 --> 00:26:16,270 stor utmaning.
693 00:26:16,270 --> 00:26:18,270 Du nämnde Bill Gates.
694 00:26:18,270 --> 00:26:20,270 Vi träffades i Brasilien för
695 00:26:20,270 --> 00:26:22,270 ett annat klimatsamhälle.
696 00:26:22,270 --> 00:26:24,270 Från den här utmaningen skrev du
697 00:26:24,270 --> 00:26:26,270 i Svenska Dagbladet att världens ledare
698 00:26:26,270 --> 00:26:28,270 borde lyssna mer på Bill Gates.
699 00:26:28,270 --> 00:26:30,270 Vad var hans
700 00:26:30,270 --> 00:26:32,270 message och varför var han rätt?
701 00:26:32,270 --> 00:26:34,270 För ett väldigt långt
702 00:26:34,270 --> 00:26:36,270 tid har vi varit väldigt oroliga
703 00:26:36,270 --> 00:26:38,270 för klimatförändringen. Det har varit
704 00:26:38,270 --> 00:26:40,270 den här dominanta
705 00:26:40,270 --> 00:26:42,270 narrativet
706 00:26:42,270 --> 00:26:44,270 att världen slutar om vi
707 00:26:44,270 --> 00:26:46,270 gör mycket mot klimatförändringen.
708 00:26:46,270 --> 00:26:48,270 Och det har aldrig varit så.
709 00:26:48,270 --> 00:26:50,270 Klimatförändringen är ett riktigt problem.
710 00:26:50,270 --> 00:26:52,270 Det är ett manfattat problem.
711 00:26:52,270 --> 00:26:54,270 Men det är inte slutet i världen.
712 00:26:54,270 --> 00:26:56,270 Det är ett problem tillsammans med många
713 00:26:56,270 --> 00:26:58,270 andra problem som vi måste lösa i 21st
714 00:26:58,270 --> 00:27:00,270 århundradet.
715 00:27:00,270 --> 00:27:02,270 Och det som Bill Gates sa och
716 00:27:02,270 --> 00:27:04,270 vad jag tyckte var en väldigt
717 00:27:04,270 --> 00:27:06,270 klart sätt att uttrycka det var
718 00:27:06,270 --> 00:27:08,270 att vi inte borde prata i Belém
719 00:27:08,270 --> 00:27:10,270 i Brasilien eller någon annan klimatsamhälle
720 00:27:10,270 --> 00:27:12,270 eller egentligen någon annan politik
721 00:27:12,270 --> 00:27:14,270 om mål. Vi borde inte prata om
722 00:27:14,270 --> 00:27:16,270 net zero i 2050
723 00:27:16,270 --> 00:27:18,270 eller 1,5 grader eller 2 grader
724 00:27:18,270 --> 00:27:20,270 Vi borde prata om
725 00:27:20,270 --> 00:27:22,270 vilken påverkan
726 00:27:22,270 --> 00:27:24,270 på mänsklig välfärd
727 00:27:24,270 --> 00:27:26,270 av alla de här politikerna.
728 00:27:26,270 --> 00:27:28,270 För vad det berättar är
729 00:27:28,270 --> 00:27:30,270 vilken är den verkliga utgången
730 00:27:30,270 --> 00:27:32,270 av alla de här sakerna.
731 00:27:32,270 --> 00:27:34,270 Och en av de saker som vi har
732 00:27:34,270 --> 00:27:36,270 uttryckt klimatförändringen för väldigt lång tid
733 00:27:36,270 --> 00:27:38,270 är att vi avslutar med väldigt
734 00:27:38,270 --> 00:27:40,270 tålbara förväntningar.
735 00:27:40,270 --> 00:27:42,270 Tänk på att alla de rika länderna
736 00:27:42,270 --> 00:27:44,270 gick till net zero i 2050
737 00:27:44,270 --> 00:27:46,270 vilket nästan alla rika länder
738 00:27:46,270 --> 00:27:48,270 utan USA vill göra.
739 00:27:48,270 --> 00:27:50,270 Det här skulle kosta
740 00:27:50,270 --> 00:27:52,270 hundratals av triljoner av dollar
741 00:27:52,270 --> 00:27:54,270 över året, men det skulle inte
742 00:27:54,270 --> 00:27:56,270 påverka idag. Det skulle påverka
743 00:27:56,270 --> 00:27:58,270 en liten del i 2050
744 00:27:58,270 --> 00:28:00,270 och det skulle minska temperaturerna
745 00:28:00,270 --> 00:28:02,270 om du använder det i EU-klimatmodellen
746 00:28:02,270 --> 00:28:04,270 ungefär 0,1 grader
747 00:28:04,270 --> 00:28:06,270 under året. Så du
748 00:28:06,270 --> 00:28:08,270 nästan inte skulle kunna mäta det.
749 00:28:08,270 --> 00:28:10,270 Att spara så mycket pengar nu
750 00:28:10,270 --> 00:28:12,270 för att hjälpa människor väldigt lite
751 00:28:12,270 --> 00:28:14,270 i 100 år är inte ett väldigt bra deal.
752 00:28:14,270 --> 00:28:16,270 Vi förväntar oss att den vanliga
753 00:28:16,270 --> 00:28:18,270 förändringen är att för varje krona
754 00:28:18,270 --> 00:28:20,270 du spenderar, gör du ungefär 17
755 00:28:20,270 --> 00:28:22,270 öre av bra, vilket är riktigt
756 00:28:22,270 --> 00:28:24,270 en dålig förändring. Du kan bara ha givit
757 00:28:24,270 --> 00:28:26,270 pengarna bort och du hade gjort sju gånger bättre.
758 00:28:26,270 --> 00:28:28,270 Men poängen här är
759 00:28:28,270 --> 00:28:30,270 att om du börjar säga
760 00:28:30,270 --> 00:28:32,270 hur kan vi hjälpa människor bättre?
761 00:28:32,270 --> 00:28:34,270 Hur kan vi göra människan bättre?
762 00:28:34,270 --> 00:28:36,270 Tänk på en
763 00:28:36,270 --> 00:28:38,270 tråkig mamma
764 00:28:38,270 --> 00:28:40,270 och hennes barn
765 00:28:40,270 --> 00:28:42,270 som kanske dör av effektuella
766 00:28:42,270 --> 00:28:44,270 infektuella sjukdomar, som malaria
767 00:28:44,270 --> 00:28:46,270 till exempel. De har inget mat, de har
768 00:28:46,270 --> 00:28:48,270 inget bra utbildning, de har alla dessa
769 00:28:48,270 --> 00:28:50,270 problem. Hennes primära
770 00:28:50,270 --> 00:28:52,270 prioritet är inte för dig och mig
771 00:28:52,270 --> 00:28:54,270 att hjälpa att minska temperaturen
772 00:28:54,270 --> 00:28:56,270 i 100 år med 0,1 grad.
773 00:28:56,270 --> 00:28:58,270 Det är inte hennes primära
774 00:28:58,270 --> 00:29:00,270 prioritet. Det är förstås att förbättra malaria,
775 00:29:00,270 --> 00:29:02,270 förbättra tuberkulosus, förbättra
776 00:29:02,270 --> 00:29:04,270 nutriktion, förbättra utbildning.
777 00:29:04,270 --> 00:29:06,270 Det är de väldigt enkla sakerna.
778 00:29:06,270 --> 00:29:08,270 Och minns du, om vi gör det,
779 00:29:08,270 --> 00:29:10,270 om vi får människor ut
780 00:29:10,270 --> 00:29:12,270 av sjukdomar, ut av sjukdomar,
781 00:29:12,270 --> 00:29:14,270 ut av bra utbildning,
782 00:29:14,270 --> 00:29:16,270 ut av påverkan.
783 00:29:16,270 --> 00:29:18,270 Om de inte är bra utbildningar
784 00:29:18,270 --> 00:29:20,270 själva. Det betyder också att
785 00:29:20,270 --> 00:29:22,270 de blir mycket mer resilienta till
786 00:29:22,270 --> 00:29:24,270 vad klimatet lämnar åt dem.
787 00:29:24,270 --> 00:29:26,270 Så återigen, det som Bill verkligen sa
788 00:29:26,270 --> 00:29:28,270 är att om du stoppar med
789 00:29:28,270 --> 00:29:30,270 att tänka att det här är
790 00:29:30,270 --> 00:29:32,270 slutet i världen, men börjar förstå att
791 00:29:32,270 --> 00:29:34,270 det är en problem, tillsammans med många andra problem.
792 00:29:34,270 --> 00:29:36,270 Vad vi gör på klimatet
793 00:29:36,270 --> 00:29:38,270 gör vi relativt lite
794 00:29:38,270 --> 00:29:40,270 jämfört med alla
795 00:29:40,270 --> 00:29:42,270 andra saker vi kan göra som skulle hjälpa
796 00:29:42,270 --> 00:29:44,270 mycket mer nu och
797 00:29:44,270 --> 00:29:46,270 mycket mer i framtiden. För om du
798 00:29:46,270 --> 00:29:48,270 tar den här mamma
799 00:29:48,270 --> 00:29:50,270 barnen ut av sjukdomar och sjukdomar
800 00:29:50,270 --> 00:29:52,270 så kommer de att växa upp, få sina
801 00:29:52,270 --> 00:29:54,270 egna barn och bli mycket bättre av dem.
802 00:29:54,270 --> 00:29:56,270 Och bli mycket bättre på att göra så
803 00:29:56,270 --> 00:29:58,270 att deras barn blir ännu bättre av dem.
804 00:29:58,270 --> 00:30:00,270 Så vid 2100
805 00:30:00,270 --> 00:30:02,270 kommer de att leva i en mycket bättre värld.
806 00:30:02,270 --> 00:30:04,270 Och det tror jag är en av
807 00:30:04,270 --> 00:30:06,270 de stora lärdomarna vi måste ta bort.
808 00:30:06,270 --> 00:30:08,270 Vi måste stoppa med att vara så
809 00:30:08,270 --> 00:30:10,270 oavsett med klimatet
810 00:30:10,270 --> 00:30:12,270 att vi glömmer alla andra problem i världen.
811 00:30:12,270 --> 00:30:14,270 Det betyder inte...
812 00:30:14,270 --> 00:30:16,270 att vi är en smart civilisation.
813 00:30:16,270 --> 00:30:18,270 Vi kan gå och äta gummi.
814 00:30:18,270 --> 00:30:20,270 Vi kan göra flera saker på en gång.
815 00:30:20,270 --> 00:30:22,270 Men vi borde spara mindre pengar
816 00:30:22,270 --> 00:30:24,270 smartare på klimatet och vi borde
817 00:30:24,270 --> 00:30:26,270 spara pengarna vi vill hjälpa
818 00:30:26,270 --> 00:30:28,270 den dåliga världen mycket smartare
819 00:30:28,270 --> 00:30:30,270 så att vi faktiskt hjälper dem mycket.
820 00:30:30,270 --> 00:30:32,270 Och samma fråga tillbaka.
821 00:30:32,270 --> 00:30:34,270 Politikerna som möttes i Brasilien
822 00:30:34,270 --> 00:30:36,270 och som kommer att mötas i år
823 00:30:36,270 --> 00:30:38,270 har de börjat lyssna på Bill Gates
824 00:30:38,270 --> 00:30:40,270 och på dig?
825 00:30:40,270 --> 00:30:42,270 Först och främst, de som kommer att mötas
826 00:30:42,270 --> 00:30:44,270 i Belém och
827 00:30:44,270 --> 00:30:46,270 jag tror i Turkiet
828 00:30:46,270 --> 00:30:48,270 eller jag vet inte riktigt
829 00:30:48,270 --> 00:30:50,270 för det finns två länder som jag vill
830 00:30:50,270 --> 00:30:52,270 att de kommer att mötas i en annan
831 00:30:52,270 --> 00:30:54,270 fin plats i ett litet år.
832 00:30:54,270 --> 00:30:56,270 De är förstås alla klimatpersoner.
833 00:30:56,270 --> 00:30:58,270 Vilket betyder...
834 00:30:58,270 --> 00:31:00,270 Om du frågar en klimatperson
835 00:31:00,270 --> 00:31:02,270 vad är det största problemet?
836 00:31:02,270 --> 00:31:04,270 De säger förstås klimat.
837 00:31:04,270 --> 00:31:06,270 Om du frågar en hälsoperson
838 00:31:06,270 --> 00:31:08,270 vad är det största problemet?
839 00:31:08,270 --> 00:31:10,270 De säger förstås hälsa.
840 00:31:10,270 --> 00:31:12,270 Det är vårt jobb som voter och politikerns jobb
841 00:31:12,270 --> 00:31:14,270 men jag förstår att alla av er vill
842 00:31:14,270 --> 00:31:16,270 pengar för er själva
843 00:31:16,270 --> 00:31:18,270 men vi måste göra de svåra frågan
844 00:31:18,270 --> 00:31:20,270 var ska vi få pengarna?
845 00:31:20,270 --> 00:31:22,270 Så om du vill lösa klimatförändringen
846 00:31:22,270 --> 00:31:24,270 måste du förstå att
847 00:31:24,270 --> 00:31:26,270 det här handlar inte om
848 00:31:26,270 --> 00:31:28,270 virtuella signaler i den rika världen.
849 00:31:28,270 --> 00:31:30,270 Vad den rika världen gör
850 00:31:30,270 --> 00:31:32,270 är en liten del av
851 00:31:32,270 --> 00:31:34,270 21st-års-emissionerna.
852 00:31:34,270 --> 00:31:36,270 Vi kommer att vara runt 13%.
853 00:31:36,270 --> 00:31:38,270 Realistiskt kan vi kalla runt 5% av dem
854 00:31:38,270 --> 00:31:40,270 för 2050.
855 00:31:40,270 --> 00:31:42,270 Så vi kan inte göra något
856 00:31:42,270 --> 00:31:44,270 vad som verkligen betyder
857 00:31:44,270 --> 00:31:46,270 om vi kan få Kina, Indien, Afrika
858 00:31:46,270 --> 00:31:48,270 Brasilien, Indonesien
859 00:31:48,270 --> 00:31:50,270 ombord och vi kan inte
860 00:31:50,270 --> 00:31:52,270 utan att vi kan göra
861 00:31:52,270 --> 00:31:54,270 grön energi billigare än fossila fjol.
862 00:31:54,270 --> 00:31:56,270 Så det vi verkligen behöver göra
863 00:31:56,270 --> 00:31:58,270 är att fokusera på innovation
864 00:31:58,270 --> 00:32:00,270 i grön energi.
865 00:32:00,270 --> 00:32:02,270 Och för att ge dig en exempel
866 00:32:02,270 --> 00:32:04,270 om vi kunde göra 4. generation nuklear
867 00:32:04,270 --> 00:32:06,270 eller fusion
868 00:32:06,270 --> 00:32:08,270 om vi kunde göra fusion fungerande
869 00:32:08,270 --> 00:32:10,270 om vi kunde göra det billigare än fossila fjol
870 00:32:10,270 --> 00:32:12,270 så skulle alla förändras.
871 00:32:12,270 --> 00:32:14,270 Du skulle inte behöva ha en konversation
872 00:32:14,270 --> 00:32:16,270 du skulle inte behöva möta alla de här
873 00:32:16,270 --> 00:32:18,270 UN summiterna för att
874 00:32:18,270 --> 00:32:20,270 ekonomin skulle ha gjort det billigare.
875 00:32:20,270 --> 00:32:22,270 Det är så du kan lösa stora problem
876 00:32:22,270 --> 00:32:24,270 genom innovation och vi har spenderat
877 00:32:24,270 --> 00:32:26,270 mycket, mycket mindre på innovation
878 00:32:26,270 --> 00:32:28,270 än vad vi förväntat oss.
879 00:32:28,270 --> 00:32:30,270 Vi har faktiskt stannat på samma nivå
880 00:32:30,270 --> 00:32:32,270 de senaste 20 åren.
881 00:32:32,270 --> 00:32:34,270 Vi har sjunkit dramatiskt från 1980
882 00:32:34,270 --> 00:32:36,270 för att vi har varit så fokuserade
883 00:32:36,270 --> 00:32:38,270 på att göra virtuella signaler.
884 00:32:38,270 --> 00:32:40,270 Alla riksmän i världen
885 00:32:40,270 --> 00:32:42,270 har ställt upp
886 00:32:42,270 --> 00:32:44,270 mycket vindturbiner och solarpaneler
887 00:32:44,270 --> 00:32:46,270 och säger att se
888 00:32:46,270 --> 00:32:48,270 istället för att investera i grön energi
889 00:32:48,270 --> 00:32:50,270 som är den sätt som vi faktiskt
890 00:32:50,270 --> 00:32:52,270 kommer att lösa det.
891 00:32:52,270 --> 00:32:54,270 Det är ganska överraskande
892 00:32:54,270 --> 00:32:56,270 för jag trodde att grön innovation
893 00:32:56,270 --> 00:32:58,270 fick allt det som det behövdes
894 00:32:58,270 --> 00:33:00,270 men siffrorna säger annorlunda.
895 00:33:00,270 --> 00:33:02,270 Så vad du måste minnas
896 00:33:02,270 --> 00:33:04,270 är att vi har spenderat mycket pengar
897 00:33:04,270 --> 00:33:06,270 på saker som vi känner inte fungerar
898 00:33:06,270 --> 00:33:08,270 så saker som faktiskt behöver ha subsidier
899 00:33:08,270 --> 00:33:10,270 och specifika regleringar.
900 00:33:10,270 --> 00:33:12,270 Så vi har spenderat mycket pengar
901 00:33:12,270 --> 00:33:14,270 på existerande vindturbiner
902 00:33:14,270 --> 00:33:16,270 och existerande solarpaneler
903 00:33:16,270 --> 00:33:18,270 men verkligheten är att vi måste
904 00:33:18,270 --> 00:33:20,270 få mycket bättre, alltså mycket billigare
905 00:33:20,270 --> 00:33:22,270 solarpaneler och vindturbiner
906 00:33:22,270 --> 00:33:24,270 men också många, många batterier.
907 00:33:24,270 --> 00:33:26,270 Vi är inte någonstans nära där.
908 00:33:26,270 --> 00:33:28,270 Vi måste spenda mycket mer
909 00:33:28,270 --> 00:33:30,270 på den fjärde generationen
910 00:33:30,270 --> 00:33:32,270 på nuklear och fusion
911 00:33:32,270 --> 00:33:34,270 och alla de andra teknologierna
912 00:33:34,270 --> 00:33:36,270 som kan komma igen.
913 00:33:36,270 --> 00:33:38,270 Men poängen är att forskning och utveckling
914 00:33:38,270 --> 00:33:40,270 är låga och det är därför vi kan
915 00:33:40,270 --> 00:33:42,270 använda det på alla de här sakerna
916 00:33:42,270 --> 00:33:44,270 och vi måste bara ha en eller flera
917 00:33:44,270 --> 00:33:46,270 av de här teknologierna som kommer igen
918 00:33:46,270 --> 00:33:48,270 och de är de som kommer i 21. århundradet.
919 00:33:48,270 --> 00:33:50,270 Så om du tittar på hur mycket vi har spenderat
920 00:33:50,270 --> 00:33:52,270 i procent av GDP
921 00:33:52,270 --> 00:33:54,270 så har det varit
922 00:33:54,270 --> 00:33:58,270 ungefär 8 kronor per 100 dollar
923 00:33:58,270 --> 00:34:00,270 i 1980-talet
924 00:34:00,270 --> 00:34:02,270 och sen har det varit
925 00:34:02,270 --> 00:34:04,270 ungefär 3-4 kronor.
926 00:34:04,270 --> 00:34:06,270 Så det är halvt, inte ökat.
927 00:34:06,270 --> 00:34:08,270 Och i 2000-talet
928 00:34:08,270 --> 00:34:10,270 2015 på Paris-summitet
929 00:34:10,270 --> 00:34:12,270 var det en annan summit
930 00:34:12,270 --> 00:34:14,270 där Obama och Xi Jinping
931 00:34:14,270 --> 00:34:16,270 och EU
932 00:34:16,270 --> 00:34:18,270 och många andra
933 00:34:18,270 --> 00:34:20,270 som hade en liten
934 00:34:20,270 --> 00:34:22,270 del av
935 00:34:22,270 --> 00:34:24,270 inflytelsen i detta. Det kallas
936 00:34:24,270 --> 00:34:26,270 Breakthrough-initiativet
937 00:34:26,270 --> 00:34:28,270 där de faktiskt förberedde att
938 00:34:28,270 --> 00:34:30,270 spenda mer på nuklear och fusion.
939 00:34:30,270 --> 00:34:32,270 Och det gjorde vi.
940 00:34:32,270 --> 00:34:34,270 För alla fokuserar på att bygga
941 00:34:34,270 --> 00:34:36,270 en ny vindturbinefarm
942 00:34:36,270 --> 00:34:38,270 istället för att spenda mer på nuklear och fusion.
943 00:34:38,270 --> 00:34:40,270 För det första kan man
944 00:34:40,270 --> 00:34:42,270 gå och ta bort en ribbon
945 00:34:42,270 --> 00:34:44,270 och det ser ut som att man faktiskt gör något.
946 00:34:44,270 --> 00:34:46,270 För det andra är det bara att fundera på forskare
947 00:34:46,270 --> 00:34:48,270 för att göra deras jobb
948 00:34:48,270 --> 00:34:50,270 och kanske fungerar det inte i 20 år.
949 00:34:50,270 --> 00:34:52,270 Men vi vet att det är den enda
950 00:34:52,270 --> 00:34:54,270 man kan göra för att förändra klimatförändringen.
951 00:34:54,270 --> 00:34:56,270 Och de största
952 00:34:56,270 --> 00:34:58,270 R&D-investeringarna i 1980-talet
953 00:34:58,270 --> 00:35:00,270 har de betalt?
954 00:35:00,270 --> 00:35:02,270 Så,
955 00:35:02,270 --> 00:35:04,270 skälet till att vi gjorde det i 1980-talet
956 00:35:04,270 --> 00:35:06,270 var den andra oljekrisen
957 00:35:06,270 --> 00:35:08,270 och alla ville hitta något annat
958 00:35:08,270 --> 00:35:10,270 än olja.
959 00:35:10,270 --> 00:35:12,270 Ett sätt att säga att det gick bra
960 00:35:12,270 --> 00:35:14,270 men det är lite längre ner
961 00:35:14,270 --> 00:35:16,270 var i fracking-revolutionen
962 00:35:16,270 --> 00:35:18,270 i USA i 2000-talet.
963 00:35:18,270 --> 00:35:20,270 Och minns du,
964 00:35:20,270 --> 00:35:22,270 vad fracking gjorde för världen
965 00:35:22,270 --> 00:35:24,270 var att många människor har väldigt negativa
966 00:35:24,270 --> 00:35:26,270 bilder av fracking.
967 00:35:26,270 --> 00:35:28,270 Och det finns riktiga miljöproblem
968 00:35:28,270 --> 00:35:30,270 med fracking.
969 00:35:30,270 --> 00:35:32,270 Men grundläggande betyder att
970 00:35:32,270 --> 00:35:34,270 man kan göra gas mycket billigare
971 00:35:34,270 --> 00:35:36,270 och det betyder att USA förändrade massivt
972 00:35:36,270 --> 00:35:38,270 från kol till gas.
973 00:35:38,270 --> 00:35:40,270 Och det har varit det viktigaste
974 00:35:40,270 --> 00:35:42,270 för att minska CO2.
975 00:35:42,270 --> 00:35:44,270 För gas förändrar ungefär hälften
976 00:35:44,270 --> 00:35:46,270 av CO2 som kol för en unit av energi.
977 00:35:46,270 --> 00:35:48,270 Så det var
978 00:35:48,270 --> 00:35:50,270 verkligen en av de sakerna
979 00:35:50,270 --> 00:35:52,270 där man fick mindre och
980 00:35:52,270 --> 00:35:54,270 grönare energi genom innovation.
981 00:35:54,270 --> 00:35:56,270 Det var inte intentionen på den tiden.
982 00:35:56,270 --> 00:35:58,270 De ville hitta en annan möjlighet för olja
983 00:35:58,270 --> 00:36:00,270 och de ville ta bort
984 00:36:00,270 --> 00:36:02,270 dependensen på Saudiarabien.
985 00:36:02,270 --> 00:36:04,270 Och USA gjorde det tydligt.
986 00:36:04,270 --> 00:36:06,270 Europa borde ha gjort samma sak.
987 00:36:06,270 --> 00:36:08,270 Vi borde ha gjort det som Kina.
988 00:36:08,270 --> 00:36:10,270 Det skulle ha minskat
989 00:36:10,270 --> 00:36:12,270 de koldioxidproduktionerna
990 00:36:12,270 --> 00:36:14,270 och det skulle ha minskat
991 00:36:14,270 --> 00:36:16,270 de koldioxidproduktionerna.
992 00:36:16,270 --> 00:36:18,270 Men det skulle ha varit en
993 00:36:18,270 --> 00:36:20,270 bra bränsleförglömning
994 00:36:20,270 --> 00:36:22,270 mot framtiden.
995 00:36:22,270 --> 00:36:24,270 Och de flesta i världen
996 00:36:24,270 --> 00:36:26,270 hade tydligen inte gjort det.
997 00:36:26,270 --> 00:36:28,270 Du nämnde tidigare att klimatförändring
998 00:36:28,270 --> 00:36:30,270 är ett av de problem som
999 00:36:30,270 --> 00:36:32,270 människan har.
1000 00:36:32,270 --> 00:36:34,270 Många säger att det är
1001 00:36:34,270 --> 00:36:36,270 det största problemet.
1002 00:36:36,270 --> 00:36:38,250 would rise, not two degrees, but maybe
1003 00:36:38,250 --> 00:36:40,130 four or five degrees, wouldn't that be
1004 00:36:40,130 --> 00:36:41,930 a disaster for humanity?
1005 00:36:42,850 --> 00:36:43,990 It would be a bigger
1006 00:36:43,990 --> 00:36:46,630 challenge.
1007 00:36:47,250 --> 00:36:48,230 Would it be manageable
1008 00:36:48,230 --> 00:36:48,710 for us?
1009 00:36:50,290 --> 00:36:52,410 I think so. Certainly that's
1010 00:36:52,410 --> 00:36:54,450 what the climate economics
1011 00:36:54,450 --> 00:36:56,410 tell us, but it would definitely be a bigger problem.
1012 00:36:56,790 --> 00:36:58,470 Now, all studies show
1013 00:36:58,470 --> 00:37:00,490 that we're going to reach, by the end of the century,
1014 00:37:00,570 --> 00:37:02,250 about three degrees. And so I think
1015 00:37:02,250 --> 00:37:04,450 it's realistic to say, well, what is
1016 00:37:04,450 --> 00:37:05,550 the impact of three degrees?
1017 00:37:05,550 --> 00:37:07,570 Well, this is what
1018 00:37:07,570 --> 00:37:09,610 climate economics has been working on
1019 00:37:09,610 --> 00:37:11,050 for a very long time, for
1020 00:37:11,050 --> 00:37:13,630 decades. And
1021 00:37:13,630 --> 00:37:15,630 what they find is, if you look at all
1022 00:37:15,630 --> 00:37:17,150 the costs and all the benefits,
1023 00:37:17,310 --> 00:37:19,530 remember, when you have global warming, you
1024 00:37:19,530 --> 00:37:21,490 get more heat waves, but you also get fewer
1025 00:37:21,490 --> 00:37:23,710 cold waves. That means you get more people
1026 00:37:23,710 --> 00:37:25,610 dying from heat, but fewer people dying from cold.
1027 00:37:25,670 --> 00:37:27,230 You need to include all of these things.
1028 00:37:27,670 --> 00:37:29,490 If you include all of them, there's more
1029 00:37:29,490 --> 00:37:31,690 disbenefits and benefits.
1030 00:37:31,890 --> 00:37:32,830 That's why it's a problem.
1031 00:37:32,830 --> 00:37:34,750 But what it turns out is
1032 00:37:34,750 --> 00:37:34,830 the next...
1033 00:37:35,550 --> 00:37:37,130 That cost is equivalent
1034 00:37:37,130 --> 00:37:39,530 to losing somewhere between 2 and 3 percent
1035 00:37:39,530 --> 00:37:41,070 of GDP by the end of the century.
1036 00:37:41,590 --> 00:37:43,330 This is the estimate of the only
1037 00:37:43,330 --> 00:37:45,230 climate economist to win the Nobel Prize,
1038 00:37:45,350 --> 00:37:47,490 William Nordhaus, and another one
1039 00:37:47,490 --> 00:37:49,330 of the most quoted climate economists
1040 00:37:49,330 --> 00:37:50,750 in the world, Richard Tull.
1041 00:37:51,110 --> 00:37:53,350 Two meta-studies that try to take into
1042 00:37:53,350 --> 00:37:55,230 account all of the studies. Remember,
1043 00:37:55,450 --> 00:37:57,290 you very often hear the worst
1044 00:37:57,290 --> 00:37:59,390 studies, because it's a little bit like, you know,
1045 00:37:59,570 --> 00:38:01,370 is egg dangerous for you, or not?
1046 00:38:01,470 --> 00:38:03,370 Is coffee dangerous for you? You don't hear the
1047 00:38:03,370 --> 00:38:05,410 studies that don't say there's dangers. You hear the
1048 00:38:05,550 --> 00:38:07,490 studies that say they are dangerous. And so you hear
1049 00:38:07,490 --> 00:38:09,470 the very extreme scenarios.
1050 00:38:09,670 --> 00:38:11,610 But if you actually take the meta-study and take
1051 00:38:11,610 --> 00:38:13,590 all of the studies, and that's what they've
1052 00:38:13,590 --> 00:38:15,790 done, you come up with 2 to 3 percent.
1053 00:38:16,170 --> 00:38:17,530 Just to give you a sense of proportion,
1054 00:38:18,070 --> 00:38:19,670 the UN estimate that by the end
1055 00:38:19,670 --> 00:38:21,370 of the century, the average person in the world
1056 00:38:21,370 --> 00:38:23,610 will be about 450 percent as
1057 00:38:23,610 --> 00:38:25,270 rich as he or she is today.
1058 00:38:25,450 --> 00:38:27,170 So, a much, much better world.
1059 00:38:27,890 --> 00:38:29,410 Because of climate change,
1060 00:38:29,650 --> 00:38:31,350 it's going to feel like he or she
1061 00:38:31,350 --> 00:38:34,690 is only 435 percent
1062 00:38:34,690 --> 00:38:35,170 as rich.
1063 00:38:35,550 --> 00:38:37,570 Now, that's a problem. It's obviously
1064 00:38:37,570 --> 00:38:39,510 a problem that we didn't get to 450,
1065 00:38:39,690 --> 00:38:41,590 but it's not the end of the world. It's a
1066 00:38:41,590 --> 00:38:43,210 slightly less,
1067 00:38:43,810 --> 00:38:44,830 much better world.
1068 00:38:45,350 --> 00:38:47,470 And that's why I'm saying, and that's why
1069 00:38:47,470 --> 00:38:49,250 the science, the climate science, sorry,
1070 00:38:49,350 --> 00:38:51,330 climate economic science shows very clearly
1071 00:38:51,330 --> 00:38:53,510 climate change is a problem, but it's
1072 00:38:53,510 --> 00:38:55,290 not by any means the end of the world.
1073 00:38:55,630 --> 00:38:57,550 And that's incredibly important, because obviously
1074 00:38:57,550 --> 00:38:59,150 if climate was
1075 00:38:59,150 --> 00:39:01,430 the only problem in the world, then we
1076 00:39:01,430 --> 00:39:03,390 should be spending, oh sorry, was the main problem
1077 00:39:03,390 --> 00:39:05,350 that's going to kill us all, then obviously you should
1078 00:39:05,550 --> 00:39:07,530 spend all of our money on that, and you should
1079 00:39:07,530 --> 00:39:09,250 just forget about poverty and all the other things.
1080 00:39:09,810 --> 00:39:11,650 But that's just not what the numbers
1081 00:39:11,650 --> 00:39:13,650 tell us. But can't you make the argument,
1082 00:39:13,850 --> 00:39:15,490 and I know some people do, that
1083 00:39:15,490 --> 00:39:17,090 the uncertainty
1084 00:39:17,090 --> 00:39:19,690 of climate change are so big
1085 00:39:19,690 --> 00:39:21,290 and the risk are so big, so it
1086 00:39:21,290 --> 00:39:23,550 may cost a lot of money, but it's a cheap
1087 00:39:23,550 --> 00:39:25,550 insurance for future
1088 00:39:25,550 --> 00:39:27,170 generation. What do you think about that?
1089 00:39:27,170 --> 00:39:29,610 Well, I mean, there are certainly a lot of people
1090 00:39:29,610 --> 00:39:31,590 who make that argument. There's several things wrong
1091 00:39:31,590 --> 00:39:32,730 with that argument. First of all,
1092 00:39:33,710 --> 00:39:35,510 if you want to buy real insurance,
1093 00:39:35,550 --> 00:39:37,630 for the vast
1094 00:39:37,630 --> 00:39:39,630 majority of humanity, it's about
1095 00:39:39,630 --> 00:39:41,710 getting them out of poverty. Not
1096 00:39:41,710 --> 00:39:43,510 only is that great for all the other
1097 00:39:43,510 --> 00:39:45,630 things that we worry about, like disease and
1098 00:39:45,630 --> 00:39:47,530 hunger and all these things, but it also
1099 00:39:47,530 --> 00:39:49,810 means that they are much, much less
1100 00:39:49,810 --> 00:39:50,990 vulnerable
1101 00:39:50,990 --> 00:39:52,750 to climate disasters.
1102 00:39:53,370 --> 00:39:55,570 If a hurricane hits Florida, a few
1103 00:39:55,570 --> 00:39:57,590 people die, and that's it. If the same
1104 00:39:57,590 --> 00:39:59,490 hurricane hits Guatemala, it
1105 00:39:59,490 --> 00:40:01,750 devastates their economy, and thousands
1106 00:40:01,750 --> 00:40:03,590 or even tens of thousands of people die.
1107 00:40:04,170 --> 00:40:05,530 So the answer here,
1108 00:40:05,550 --> 00:40:07,450 is not to try to make
1109 00:40:07,450 --> 00:40:09,390 hurricanes slightly less
1110 00:40:09,390 --> 00:40:11,470 worse by the end of the century. The answer,
1111 00:40:11,610 --> 00:40:13,590 of course, is to get Guatemalans out
1112 00:40:13,590 --> 00:40:15,330 of poverty first. Now, again,
1113 00:40:15,430 --> 00:40:17,490 I sympathize with the idea of saying
1114 00:40:17,490 --> 00:40:19,430 but we should also make sure we do
1115 00:40:19,430 --> 00:40:20,810 something good for climate.
1116 00:40:21,490 --> 00:40:23,910 So there's two problems with this. First of all,
1117 00:40:23,990 --> 00:40:25,530 so far, for the last
1118 00:40:25,530 --> 00:40:27,650 30 years, pretty much all that we've
1119 00:40:27,650 --> 00:40:29,330 gotten from climate policy is
1120 00:40:29,330 --> 00:40:31,230 rich countries virtue-cycling
1121 00:40:31,230 --> 00:40:33,510 a little bit. We haven't caught very much.
1122 00:40:33,510 --> 00:40:35,010 I mean, we've still seen the
1123 00:40:35,010 --> 00:40:37,930 biggest amount
1124 00:40:37,930 --> 00:40:38,930 of emissions
1125 00:40:38,930 --> 00:40:41,130 from fossil fuels in the world
1126 00:40:41,130 --> 00:40:43,370 was last year. It keeps going
1127 00:40:43,370 --> 00:40:45,470 up. And the reality is
1128 00:40:45,470 --> 00:40:47,430 that even though we talk a lot about
1129 00:40:47,430 --> 00:40:49,390 it, most people, not surprisingly
1130 00:40:49,390 --> 00:40:51,310 because we would do exactly the same thing
1131 00:40:51,310 --> 00:40:53,450 as we were poor, decide they'd rather
1132 00:40:53,450 --> 00:40:55,310 not be poor than cutting
1133 00:40:55,310 --> 00:40:57,330 their carbon emissions. So we
1134 00:40:57,330 --> 00:40:59,310 have been focusing on the wrong
1135 00:40:59,310 --> 00:41:01,330 ways to fix climate change, and I think it's
1136 00:41:01,330 --> 00:41:03,410 very likely that if we keep on
1137 00:41:03,410 --> 00:41:04,810 doing these poor policies,
1138 00:41:05,010 --> 00:41:07,110 we're going to see more people
1139 00:41:07,110 --> 00:41:09,070 voting for the likes of
1140 00:41:09,070 --> 00:41:11,210 Donald Trump. I don't agree
1141 00:41:11,210 --> 00:41:13,090 with a lot of the things that Donald Trump
1142 00:41:13,090 --> 00:41:14,990 has done, but I think we're seeing that
1143 00:41:14,990 --> 00:41:16,150 also in a lot of Europe.
1144 00:41:17,090 --> 00:41:18,810 Right-wing populist parties
1145 00:41:18,810 --> 00:41:21,030 that are essentially saying, enough, we don't want
1146 00:41:21,030 --> 00:41:22,510 to pay for this. And remember,
1147 00:41:22,950 --> 00:41:25,050 these current climate policies have
1148 00:41:25,050 --> 00:41:26,970 to be endured for decades
1149 00:41:26,970 --> 00:41:29,010 on end, and most likely
1150 00:41:29,010 --> 00:41:30,890 most of them will be scrapped
1151 00:41:30,890 --> 00:41:33,150 at one point or another. So
1152 00:41:33,150 --> 00:41:34,850 instead, we need to spend
1153 00:41:35,010 --> 00:41:36,890 less, but spend a much smarter
1154 00:41:36,890 --> 00:41:38,710 and dramatically increased research
1155 00:41:38,710 --> 00:41:40,470 in green energy R&D,
1156 00:41:40,810 --> 00:41:42,690 which would be much cheaper, much more
1157 00:41:42,690 --> 00:41:44,370 effective, and also leave money
1158 00:41:44,370 --> 00:41:46,730 for all the other problems we should be fixing.
1159 00:41:47,630 --> 00:41:48,870 Right. Emissions
1160 00:41:48,870 --> 00:41:50,770 is going up, that is true, but it's
1161 00:41:50,770 --> 00:41:52,910 in money countries, they are going down
1162 00:41:52,910 --> 00:41:54,870 or they're not going up, and still we are getting
1163 00:41:54,870 --> 00:41:56,930 more people and we are getting richer, so
1164 00:41:56,930 --> 00:41:58,710 per capita, emissions
1165 00:41:58,710 --> 00:42:00,770 are falling in some countries. Isn't that
1166 00:42:00,770 --> 00:42:02,610 a little bit good? Absolutely.
1167 00:42:02,870 --> 00:42:04,650 I mean, I'd rather live in a world where we cut
1168 00:42:04,650 --> 00:42:06,690 emissions than where we don't, but
1169 00:42:06,690 --> 00:42:08,790 there are real trade-offs, and that's what we've spent
1170 00:42:08,790 --> 00:42:10,470 the last, I don't know, half hour,
1171 00:42:10,610 --> 00:42:12,570 three quarters of an hour talking about, because
1172 00:42:12,570 --> 00:42:15,030 we can't do it all. So we can decide
1173 00:42:15,030 --> 00:42:16,710 we're going to spend a significant part
1174 00:42:16,710 --> 00:42:18,670 of our wealth on cutting emissions.
1175 00:42:19,070 --> 00:42:20,930 Now, in a rich country like Sweden,
1176 00:42:21,050 --> 00:42:22,690 you can decide to do that, and you can
1177 00:42:22,690 --> 00:42:24,530 get away with it, and you can do this for
1178 00:42:24,530 --> 00:42:26,530 a fairly long time, but
1179 00:42:26,530 --> 00:42:28,270 there are also powers that eventually
1180 00:42:28,270 --> 00:42:30,530 turn up and say, especially
1181 00:42:30,530 --> 00:42:32,530 when this hurts a lot of poor people, because
1182 00:42:32,530 --> 00:42:34,550 it will, poor people in rich countries,
1183 00:42:34,650 --> 00:42:36,510 so poor people in Sweden, who feel
1184 00:42:36,510 --> 00:42:38,430 the struggle from having to pay
1185 00:42:38,430 --> 00:42:40,630 an expensive energy bill, who can't
1186 00:42:40,630 --> 00:42:42,470 fill their gas tanks, so on.
1187 00:42:42,710 --> 00:42:44,650 Those are real issues, and eventually
1188 00:42:44,650 --> 00:42:45,410 that will turn up
1189 00:42:45,410 --> 00:42:48,130 at the ballot box.
1190 00:42:48,750 --> 00:42:50,630 But this is much, much more
1191 00:42:50,630 --> 00:42:52,490 important to realize. You can't
1192 00:42:52,490 --> 00:42:54,510 make India or
1193 00:42:54,510 --> 00:42:56,030 Africa or Indonesia
1194 00:42:56,030 --> 00:42:57,950 decide to say this. I mean,
1195 00:42:58,250 --> 00:43:00,450 it was somewhat underreported,
1196 00:43:00,450 --> 00:43:01,530 but I don't know if you noticed,
1197 00:43:01,910 --> 00:43:04,050 during the Brazil
1198 00:43:04,650 --> 00:43:06,790 leadership of the latest climate
1199 00:43:06,790 --> 00:43:08,590 conference, Lula
1200 00:43:08,590 --> 00:43:10,650 also announced that they were going to drill
1201 00:43:10,650 --> 00:43:12,690 a lot more off the coast of
1202 00:43:12,690 --> 00:43:14,550 the Amazon forest, and
1203 00:43:14,550 --> 00:43:16,370 they were sort of challenging him and saying,
1204 00:43:16,730 --> 00:43:18,010 but Mr. President,
1205 00:43:18,210 --> 00:43:19,550 you're head of
1206 00:43:19,550 --> 00:43:22,610 the climate conference,
1207 00:43:22,790 --> 00:43:24,350 and you want everyone to cut, and he was like,
1208 00:43:24,710 --> 00:43:26,770 yeah, but we're a poor country, and we also
1209 00:43:26,770 --> 00:43:28,710 want to have more opportunity, we want to
1210 00:43:28,710 --> 00:43:30,690 get a lot more people out of poverty, and that's
1211 00:43:30,690 --> 00:43:32,550 just how it has to be. And that's, of course,
1212 00:43:32,790 --> 00:43:34,590 obvious. I mean, we've recognized
1213 00:43:34,650 --> 00:43:36,230 this, because if you and I live there,
1214 00:43:36,770 --> 00:43:38,090 especially if we were poor,
1215 00:43:38,430 --> 00:43:40,430 we would want our president
1216 00:43:40,430 --> 00:43:41,410 to do the same thing.
1217 00:43:42,610 --> 00:43:44,370 Most of climate politics are
1218 00:43:44,370 --> 00:43:46,450 ineffective and bad. Are there examples
1219 00:43:46,450 --> 00:43:48,430 of good policies that we should
1220 00:43:48,430 --> 00:43:49,070 do more of?
1221 00:43:50,210 --> 00:43:52,490 So, unfortunately, there has not been
1222 00:43:52,490 --> 00:43:54,090 very many. I mean, there was a big study
1223 00:43:54,090 --> 00:43:56,090 a couple years ago that looked at
1224 00:43:56,090 --> 00:43:58,150 4,000 climate policies,
1225 00:43:58,690 --> 00:44:00,490 and only 0.67%,
1226 00:44:01,490 --> 00:44:02,630 so less than 1%
1227 00:44:02,630 --> 00:44:04,630 of them had measurable impact.
1228 00:44:04,650 --> 00:44:06,690 So, what that tells you
1229 00:44:06,690 --> 00:44:08,530 is, no, most of them have just
1230 00:44:08,530 --> 00:44:10,230 been really, really bad.
1231 00:44:11,270 --> 00:44:12,430 This doesn't mean
1232 00:44:12,430 --> 00:44:13,990 that...
1233 00:44:13,990 --> 00:44:16,670 I think some of these
1234 00:44:16,670 --> 00:44:18,650 things that we do for other
1235 00:44:18,650 --> 00:44:20,730 reasons, so for air pollution reasons,
1236 00:44:20,870 --> 00:44:22,630 for instance, getting rid of coal is a
1237 00:44:22,630 --> 00:44:24,390 great idea in much of the rich world, not
1238 00:44:24,390 --> 00:44:26,570 mainly because of climate change, but because they
1239 00:44:26,570 --> 00:44:28,690 pollute a lot. And because we're rich,
1240 00:44:28,790 --> 00:44:30,510 that is actually a really bad idea,
1241 00:44:30,510 --> 00:44:32,270 because they kill people from
1242 00:44:32,270 --> 00:44:34,490 air pollution. There's also the
1243 00:44:34,490 --> 00:44:35,690 argument of getting
1244 00:44:35,690 --> 00:44:38,430 more energy efficiency.
1245 00:44:38,710 --> 00:44:40,330 It's been good for many countries who
1246 00:44:40,330 --> 00:44:42,750 didn't go on the fracking revolution,
1247 00:44:42,950 --> 00:44:44,510 so are dependent on having
1248 00:44:44,510 --> 00:44:46,190 to import a lot of fossil fuels.
1249 00:44:46,490 --> 00:44:48,110 It's good, all things equal,
1250 00:44:48,430 --> 00:44:50,130 that you don't have to import as much
1251 00:44:50,130 --> 00:44:52,030 fossil fuels, so that you save
1252 00:44:52,030 --> 00:44:54,630 on energy. But, unfortunately,
1253 00:44:54,830 --> 00:44:56,510 no, many of these policies have just
1254 00:44:56,510 --> 00:44:58,590 been, you know, just breaking
1255 00:44:58,590 --> 00:45:00,250 even, or worse than that.
1256 00:45:00,810 --> 00:45:02,650 The plans for emission
1257 00:45:02,650 --> 00:45:04,390 trading system in the EU,
1258 00:45:04,490 --> 00:45:05,690 is that a good idea?
1259 00:45:05,690 --> 00:45:07,770 So, it's certainly a better idea than
1260 00:45:07,770 --> 00:45:09,870 most of these other tendencies
1261 00:45:09,870 --> 00:45:11,870 that we want to, you know, give
1262 00:45:11,870 --> 00:45:13,810 subsidies, or that we want to
1263 00:45:13,810 --> 00:45:15,850 just determine how to do this,
1264 00:45:15,890 --> 00:45:16,910 because if you do it through
1265 00:45:16,910 --> 00:45:19,670 a trading system or a carbon tax, which
1266 00:45:19,670 --> 00:45:21,770 is essentially the equivalent,
1267 00:45:22,210 --> 00:45:23,830 you get a more efficient allocation.
1268 00:45:23,990 --> 00:45:25,490 So, any economist would say this is
1269 00:45:25,490 --> 00:45:27,490 an improvement. But, again,
1270 00:45:27,490 --> 00:45:29,350 when you're going to say, by
1271 00:45:29,350 --> 00:45:30,970 2040, we want to cut
1272 00:45:30,970 --> 00:45:32,810 90% of our emissions,
1273 00:45:33,470 --> 00:45:34,170 that's just,
1274 00:45:34,490 --> 00:45:35,490 ludicrous. It's not going to
1275 00:45:35,490 --> 00:45:37,990 happen at current technology.
1276 00:45:38,090 --> 00:45:39,430 I mean, it may be that we find
1277 00:45:39,430 --> 00:45:40,770 technologies that are so efficient
1278 00:45:40,770 --> 00:45:42,590 that we can achieve this, but
1279 00:45:42,590 --> 00:45:43,710 otherwise you're just going to get
1280 00:45:43,710 --> 00:45:46,290 wholesale voter outrage, and
1281 00:45:46,290 --> 00:45:47,590 you're going to get these policies
1282 00:45:47,590 --> 00:45:49,250 thrown out. That's part of the
1283 00:45:49,250 --> 00:45:50,310 reason why I'm saying, you know,
1284 00:45:50,370 --> 00:45:51,930 we can promise all these nice
1285 00:45:51,930 --> 00:45:53,430 things, but once it starts getting
1286 00:45:53,430 --> 00:45:55,070 really, really expensive, voters
1287 00:45:55,070 --> 00:45:56,890 won't have it. And so, again,
1288 00:45:56,930 --> 00:45:58,670 we need to find a policy that
1289 00:45:58,670 --> 00:46:00,690 actually works in real life, and
1290 00:46:00,690 --> 00:46:02,570 not just one that makes, especially
1291 00:46:02,570 --> 00:46:04,470 green voters, feel good right now.
1292 00:46:05,490 --> 00:46:06,710 And these great promises
1293 00:46:06,710 --> 00:46:08,970 that are never going to be met
1294 00:46:08,970 --> 00:46:10,870 when it comes to
1295 00:46:10,870 --> 00:46:12,890 democracy and
1296 00:46:12,890 --> 00:46:14,710 what do you think about this
1297 00:46:14,710 --> 00:46:16,310 political system and so on, are there
1298 00:46:16,310 --> 00:46:18,650 risks and dangers that people are going
1299 00:46:18,650 --> 00:46:19,790 nah,
1300 00:46:20,670 --> 00:46:22,830 the promises are never met, so
1301 00:46:22,830 --> 00:46:24,310 they're losing faith in
1302 00:46:24,310 --> 00:46:26,470 politics? Oh, of course. I mean,
1303 00:46:26,590 --> 00:46:28,910 it's a bad idea to have
1304 00:46:28,910 --> 00:46:31,050 politicians promise stuff
1305 00:46:31,050 --> 00:46:32,630 that they're not actually going to achieve.
1306 00:46:33,070 --> 00:46:34,450 That was true when we talked about
1307 00:46:34,490 --> 00:46:36,510 the Sustainable Development Goals, that's true about the
1308 00:46:36,510 --> 00:46:38,570 climate policies, but I think
1309 00:46:38,570 --> 00:46:40,650 whereas most
1310 00:46:40,650 --> 00:46:42,630 politicians probably knew
1311 00:46:42,630 --> 00:46:44,490 that they were just bragging
1312 00:46:44,490 --> 00:46:46,730 with the Sustainable Development
1313 00:46:46,730 --> 00:46:48,570 Goals because they kind of knew, of course, we're not
1314 00:46:48,570 --> 00:46:50,690 going to eradicate poverty and eradicate hunger
1315 00:46:50,690 --> 00:46:52,870 and eradicate infectious disease.
1316 00:46:53,090 --> 00:46:54,190 That's just silly
1317 00:46:54,190 --> 00:46:56,650 to make these promises. What we should have promised,
1318 00:46:56,950 --> 00:46:58,610 like we did in the Millennium Development
1319 00:46:58,610 --> 00:47:00,510 Goals, to cut them by two-thirds
1320 00:47:00,510 --> 00:47:02,510 or cut them by half or something realistic,
1321 00:47:02,770 --> 00:47:04,410 that would have been sensible.
1322 00:47:04,490 --> 00:47:05,570 The other thing is just
1323 00:47:05,570 --> 00:47:08,490 propaganda. But I think on
1324 00:47:08,490 --> 00:47:10,530 climate, a lot of people have
1325 00:47:10,530 --> 00:47:12,150 bought in, a lot of politicians have bought in,
1326 00:47:12,410 --> 00:47:14,450 this is the end of the world, so we just have to
1327 00:47:14,450 --> 00:47:16,010 do everything. But of course,
1328 00:47:16,250 --> 00:47:18,510 when it comes down to it, for most
1329 00:47:18,510 --> 00:47:20,530 people, it is a problem,
1330 00:47:21,130 --> 00:47:22,490 but it's also a problem if I
1331 00:47:22,490 --> 00:47:23,610 can't afford to
1332 00:47:23,610 --> 00:47:26,570 fill up my
1333 00:47:26,570 --> 00:47:28,490 gas tank in the car or
1334 00:47:28,490 --> 00:47:30,610 afford to keep the whole
1335 00:47:30,610 --> 00:47:32,370 house heated. We know, for instance,
1336 00:47:32,370 --> 00:47:34,450 in many countries, probably not so much here
1337 00:47:34,490 --> 00:47:36,450 in Sweden, because we have a fairly
1338 00:47:36,450 --> 00:47:38,470 equal society. But in
1339 00:47:38,470 --> 00:47:40,230 Britain, for instance, about a third of all
1340 00:47:40,230 --> 00:47:42,550 retirees, they keep
1341 00:47:42,550 --> 00:47:44,530 parts of their house uncooled,
1342 00:47:45,430 --> 00:47:46,410 sorry, unheated
1343 00:47:46,410 --> 00:47:48,490 in the winter, because they just
1344 00:47:48,490 --> 00:47:50,350 can't afford to. And many of them
1345 00:47:50,350 --> 00:47:52,150 stay in bed longer in order to
1346 00:47:52,150 --> 00:47:54,370 stay warm. Those kinds of things are just
1347 00:47:54,370 --> 00:47:56,410 no, that's not how a
1348 00:47:56,410 --> 00:47:58,310 civilized, developed country should be.
1349 00:47:58,610 --> 00:48:00,470 And we need to come to terms with saying
1350 00:48:00,470 --> 00:48:02,650 we shouldn't offer everything
1351 00:48:02,650 --> 00:48:04,050 on the altar of climate change.
1352 00:48:04,490 --> 00:48:06,430 In order to do ineffective policies,
1353 00:48:06,430 --> 00:48:08,370 we should be focusing on spending less money
1354 00:48:08,370 --> 00:48:10,530 much more effectively, so we both fix
1355 00:48:10,530 --> 00:48:12,550 climate and fix all the other problems.
1356 00:48:13,870 --> 00:48:14,650 A bit on that topic,
1357 00:48:14,930 --> 00:48:16,650 you argue in another
1358 00:48:16,650 --> 00:48:18,450 of your pieces from last year, that
1359 00:48:18,450 --> 00:48:20,190 voters have grown tired of politicians
1360 00:48:20,190 --> 00:48:22,350 who compete to scream the most
1361 00:48:22,350 --> 00:48:24,470 and loudest about the imminent danger.
1362 00:48:25,250 --> 00:48:26,530 And that's a good thing, I reckon.
1363 00:48:26,650 --> 00:48:28,210 Yes, yes. I mean, look,
1364 00:48:28,550 --> 00:48:30,610 we gotta stop scaring
1365 00:48:30,610 --> 00:48:32,050 our kids witless. As I
1366 00:48:32,050 --> 00:48:34,470 mentioned, the fact that by the
1367 00:48:34,490 --> 00:48:36,450 end of the century, the average person will only
1368 00:48:36,450 --> 00:48:38,450 be 435% as rich
1369 00:48:38,450 --> 00:48:40,390 rather than 450%
1370 00:48:40,390 --> 00:48:42,550 should mostly be celebrated.
1371 00:48:42,730 --> 00:48:44,410 I mean, yes, it's still a problem that we
1372 00:48:44,410 --> 00:48:46,310 could have done even better, and yes,
1373 00:48:46,330 --> 00:48:48,190 there's a lot of things in there, but
1374 00:48:48,190 --> 00:48:49,790 this is not the end of the world.
1375 00:48:50,530 --> 00:48:52,190 Us scaring kids witless
1376 00:48:52,190 --> 00:48:53,770 has been a terrible thing.
1377 00:48:54,250 --> 00:48:55,990 It's led to a lot of psychological
1378 00:48:55,990 --> 00:48:58,490 problems, and quite frankly, I understand
1379 00:48:58,490 --> 00:49:00,250 a lot of kids who've decided, no,
1380 00:49:00,510 --> 00:49:02,170 I don't want to go to school,
1381 00:49:02,350 --> 00:49:04,450 or I don't want to get a kid.
1382 00:49:04,490 --> 00:49:06,250 Those are terrible outcomes
1383 00:49:06,250 --> 00:49:08,310 if they're untrue, and I think it's very,
1384 00:49:08,430 --> 00:49:10,310 very obvious that the data tells you
1385 00:49:10,310 --> 00:49:12,430 these are untrue. So when we get
1386 00:49:12,430 --> 00:49:14,430 politicians who scream a little less
1387 00:49:14,430 --> 00:49:16,610 and who start having a more sensible
1388 00:49:16,610 --> 00:49:18,490 conversation, yes, climate change
1389 00:49:18,490 --> 00:49:20,390 is one challenge that we need to fix.
1390 00:49:20,630 --> 00:49:22,570 Let's fix it smartly so we can also
1391 00:49:22,570 --> 00:49:24,330 afford all the other things. Remember,
1392 00:49:24,710 --> 00:49:26,370 for most Europeans, we've
1393 00:49:26,370 --> 00:49:28,470 started realizing, oh, we gotta pay a
1394 00:49:28,470 --> 00:49:30,590 lot more for our defense because there's actually
1395 00:49:30,590 --> 00:49:32,390 real problems in the world that could
1396 00:49:32,390 --> 00:49:34,390 come and bite us in the end.
1397 00:49:34,490 --> 00:49:36,470 And behind in just a couple
1398 00:49:36,470 --> 00:49:38,510 of years. And there are lots
1399 00:49:38,510 --> 00:49:40,310 of other problems across the European
1400 00:49:40,310 --> 00:49:42,670 continent. We're not competitive
1401 00:49:42,670 --> 00:49:44,370 enough. We have very, very high energy
1402 00:49:44,370 --> 00:49:46,050 prices, which is one of the outcomes of
1403 00:49:46,050 --> 00:49:48,390 climate policy. And we have
1404 00:49:48,390 --> 00:49:50,390 unfunded, not here in Sweden, in the
1405 00:49:50,390 --> 00:49:52,170 Nordics, but in general,
1406 00:49:52,430 --> 00:49:54,450 unfunded pension systems that are going to
1407 00:49:54,450 --> 00:49:56,450 erupt really badly in
1408 00:49:56,450 --> 00:49:58,310 just a couple of decades. We have
1409 00:49:58,310 --> 00:50:00,310 lots of other problems. Let's not
1410 00:50:00,310 --> 00:50:02,390 make ourselves so weak for one thing that
1411 00:50:02,390 --> 00:50:04,330 doesn't work, namely the current
1412 00:50:04,330 --> 00:50:06,410 climate policies, that we can't actually
1413 00:50:06,410 --> 00:50:08,330 fix all these other things. So we can also,
1414 00:50:08,430 --> 00:50:09,850 I don't know, stand up to Trump.
1415 00:50:11,190 --> 00:50:12,510 Another question, maybe
1416 00:50:12,510 --> 00:50:14,170 a bit of a side note, but in Sweden
1417 00:50:14,170 --> 00:50:16,490 for a few years ago, it was a very common message
1418 00:50:16,490 --> 00:50:18,270 from politicians
1419 00:50:18,270 --> 00:50:20,270 that you
1420 00:50:20,270 --> 00:50:22,410 didn't have to choose between economic
1421 00:50:22,410 --> 00:50:24,710 growth and climate transition
1422 00:50:24,710 --> 00:50:26,410 because they were walking hand
1423 00:50:26,410 --> 00:50:28,010 in hand. Actually, there was
1424 00:50:28,010 --> 00:50:30,410 green transition was in itself a
1425 00:50:30,410 --> 00:50:32,270 path to growth. Was this
1426 00:50:32,270 --> 00:50:33,570 never true, or was it true?
1427 00:50:34,330 --> 00:50:36,330 I don't think it was ever true, but it's very obvious
1428 00:50:36,330 --> 00:50:38,030 now that we can see
1429 00:50:38,030 --> 00:50:39,970 it's not true. Obviously,
1430 00:50:40,550 --> 00:50:41,770 if... Do you recognize this?
1431 00:50:41,990 --> 00:50:43,370 Yes. Oh, of course.
1432 00:50:44,030 --> 00:50:45,830 And the simple point is, look,
1433 00:50:46,150 --> 00:50:48,370 if green was really cheaper,
1434 00:50:49,030 --> 00:50:50,430 everyone would just be doing
1435 00:50:50,430 --> 00:50:52,450 it. This is not a hard thing
1436 00:50:52,450 --> 00:50:54,350 to think about.
1437 00:50:54,710 --> 00:50:55,850 If getting
1438 00:50:55,850 --> 00:50:58,090 on the green wave was just something
1439 00:50:58,090 --> 00:51:00,330 everyone wanted to do, we didn't need
1440 00:51:00,330 --> 00:51:02,230 to have any climate summits.
1441 00:51:02,550 --> 00:51:03,890 Everyone would just be doing it.
1442 00:51:04,330 --> 00:51:05,550 The reason why
1443 00:51:05,550 --> 00:51:08,150 we have to twist each other's arms
1444 00:51:08,150 --> 00:51:10,190 and our own arms is, of course, that we're
1445 00:51:10,190 --> 00:51:12,310 actually asking people to do... I'm sorry,
1446 00:51:12,490 --> 00:51:14,390 would you mind having more expensive electricity,
1447 00:51:14,530 --> 00:51:16,590 but at least it'll not be...
1448 00:51:16,590 --> 00:51:18,270 You can't be confident that it'll be
1449 00:51:18,270 --> 00:51:19,970 there when you need it. That's
1450 00:51:19,970 --> 00:51:22,170 just a terrible argument. And, of course,
1451 00:51:22,490 --> 00:51:24,190 you can do this. Economists
1452 00:51:24,190 --> 00:51:26,170 will always tell you, with enough
1453 00:51:26,170 --> 00:51:28,250 money, you can do whatever you want, but you just can't
1454 00:51:28,250 --> 00:51:30,350 do everything. And so, this costs
1455 00:51:30,350 --> 00:51:32,190 real resources, and that's, of course,
1456 00:51:32,250 --> 00:51:34,250 why we're seeing, across the European
1457 00:51:34,250 --> 00:51:36,070 continent, a lot of people saying,
1458 00:51:36,290 --> 00:51:37,670 no, I don't want to do this anymore.
1459 00:51:38,030 --> 00:51:39,810 I think it's a tragic outcome
1460 00:51:39,810 --> 00:51:41,990 of well-intentioned policy.
1461 00:51:42,170 --> 00:51:44,050 So, I think all of the green people
1462 00:51:44,050 --> 00:51:46,030 who are arguing we should do something about
1463 00:51:46,030 --> 00:51:48,030 climate change, they're well-intentioned. I mean, just like
1464 00:51:48,030 --> 00:51:50,070 the people who are saying we should do something about education
1465 00:51:50,070 --> 00:51:52,070 in the developing world, or the people who are saying
1466 00:51:52,070 --> 00:51:54,090 we should get rid of malaria. They're
1467 00:51:54,090 --> 00:51:55,610 all well-intentioned people.
1468 00:51:55,950 --> 00:51:58,370 It just so happens that the well-intentioned
1469 00:51:58,370 --> 00:52:00,090 people on climate change have been
1470 00:52:00,090 --> 00:52:02,110 pushing a policy that we knew
1471 00:52:02,110 --> 00:52:03,830 30 years ago wouldn't work,
1472 00:52:04,250 --> 00:52:06,350 we knew 20 or 10 years or 5 years
1473 00:52:06,350 --> 00:52:08,290 ago wouldn't work, and now most
1474 00:52:08,290 --> 00:52:10,230 people can see, oh, well, yeah, it was
1475 00:52:10,230 --> 00:52:12,030 really expensive and didn't work very well,
1476 00:52:12,390 --> 00:52:14,250 and most people are going to say no
1477 00:52:14,250 --> 00:52:16,190 to this. So, let's
1478 00:52:16,190 --> 00:52:18,310 find a smarter and cheaper and more
1479 00:52:18,310 --> 00:52:20,230 effective way to deal with climate change, so
1480 00:52:20,230 --> 00:52:22,270 we can do the exact same thing that we talked about
1481 00:52:22,270 --> 00:52:24,190 in the beginning of the program, namely being smart
1482 00:52:24,190 --> 00:52:26,310 and effective on all the different things
1483 00:52:26,310 --> 00:52:27,370 that we need to worry about.
1484 00:52:28,090 --> 00:52:30,390 Our time is almost up,
1485 00:52:30,490 --> 00:52:32,030 but just a few questions more.
1486 00:52:32,430 --> 00:52:34,110 Are you familiar with the Swedish term
1487 00:52:34,250 --> 00:52:34,970 åsiktskorridoren?
1488 00:52:35,170 --> 00:52:37,370 Oh, yes. I love that term.
1489 00:52:37,510 --> 00:52:39,350 I don't know how to translate it, but it's a
1490 00:52:39,350 --> 00:52:41,130 great term. I love to
1491 00:52:41,130 --> 00:52:43,510 sort of translate it when I tell other people.
1492 00:52:43,510 --> 00:52:45,450 Has it been a real thing when it comes to
1493 00:52:45,450 --> 00:52:46,410 climate politics?
1494 00:52:46,990 --> 00:52:49,430 Well, certainly where I've experienced
1495 00:52:49,430 --> 00:52:51,230 it, I haven't been all that much involved in
1496 00:52:51,230 --> 00:52:53,210 Swedish politics, but this is all over
1497 00:52:53,210 --> 00:52:55,270 the place. Everybody has been for a very long
1498 00:52:55,270 --> 00:52:57,330 time saying, no, no, you can't say
1499 00:52:57,330 --> 00:52:59,150 anything, but climate
1500 00:52:59,150 --> 00:53:01,250 is the end of the world and we need to do everything
1501 00:53:01,250 --> 00:53:03,210 about it. So, even though I've never
1502 00:53:03,210 --> 00:53:04,230 denied climate change,
1503 00:53:04,250 --> 00:53:07,050 I've always said, yes, it's a real problem,
1504 00:53:07,150 --> 00:53:09,130 it's a man-made problem, it's something that we need to
1505 00:53:09,130 --> 00:53:11,170 fix, but it's not the only problem.
1506 00:53:11,170 --> 00:53:13,170 Oh, wait, you're a terrible person, right?
1507 00:53:13,250 --> 00:53:14,930 I mean, this was literally the
1508 00:53:14,930 --> 00:53:16,590 reaction for a very long time.
1509 00:53:16,990 --> 00:53:18,470 It is no longer, and I think
1510 00:53:18,470 --> 00:53:20,990 part of this is because we started
1511 00:53:20,990 --> 00:53:23,230 realizing, oh, he's right, but also
1512 00:53:23,230 --> 00:53:25,190 because it has become much more common
1513 00:53:25,190 --> 00:53:26,790 like Bill Gates and many others
1514 00:53:26,790 --> 00:53:28,510 to say, wait a minute,
1515 00:53:28,990 --> 00:53:30,670 we actually also have other problems.
1516 00:53:31,010 --> 00:53:33,070 And I think the invasion of Ukraine,
1517 00:53:33,610 --> 00:53:34,130 COVID,
1518 00:53:34,250 --> 00:53:35,610 have also made it clear
1519 00:53:35,610 --> 00:53:37,270 to people, oh, wait,
1520 00:53:37,850 --> 00:53:39,470 we were not, you know, we had
1521 00:53:39,470 --> 00:53:40,990 this idea back in when
1522 00:53:40,990 --> 00:53:43,730 the wall
1523 00:53:43,730 --> 00:53:45,630 fell and the whole
1524 00:53:45,630 --> 00:53:47,370 world seemed to have all come around
1525 00:53:47,370 --> 00:53:49,090 at a sort of western liberal
1526 00:53:49,090 --> 00:53:50,610 democracy kind of thing.
1527 00:53:51,130 --> 00:53:53,310 We thought history had ended and
1528 00:53:53,310 --> 00:53:55,570 we really just had this one problem, we need to
1529 00:53:55,570 --> 00:53:57,630 fix climate change. Sure, it's going to be expensive
1530 00:53:57,630 --> 00:53:59,570 but we can afford it and it's really the
1531 00:53:59,570 --> 00:54:01,470 only thing we need to fix. Now
1532 00:54:01,470 --> 00:54:03,550 everyone realized, oh, wait, there's a lot
1533 00:54:03,550 --> 00:54:03,930 of other
1534 00:54:04,250 --> 00:54:06,110 issues, you know, pension reforms,
1535 00:54:06,110 --> 00:54:09,370 defense. The fact that we have
1536 00:54:09,370 --> 00:54:12,130 so many other problems in the world
1537 00:54:12,130 --> 00:54:14,770 that we need to tackle make it much clearer
1538 00:54:14,770 --> 00:54:16,890 to most people. We have to be really
1539 00:54:16,890 --> 00:54:18,170 careful how we spend our money.
1540 00:54:18,970 --> 00:54:21,650 So you and people who think like you,
1541 00:54:21,650 --> 00:54:24,130 you're the winners, you're starting to win now?
1542 00:54:24,770 --> 00:54:28,150 I, I, no, I don't think that's the right
1543 00:54:28,150 --> 00:54:29,930 way to think. Think about it as much more
1544 00:54:29,930 --> 00:54:33,850 that I think most people were in a,
1545 00:54:34,250 --> 00:54:37,690 we're in a, in a sort of idealistic scenario
1546 00:54:37,690 --> 00:54:39,930 for, for some decades and believing, oh, we
1547 00:54:39,930 --> 00:54:42,370 can do all good things. And we're all coming
1548 00:54:42,370 --> 00:54:44,930 back to reality. I'm glad that we're all doing
1549 00:54:44,930 --> 00:54:47,010 that. So I think it's more sort of welcome
1550 00:54:47,010 --> 00:54:49,250 back to reality. Now let's try to think about
1551 00:54:49,250 --> 00:54:52,090 this smartly instead of just ideologically.
1552 00:54:52,330 --> 00:54:55,950 Let's do this in a cost-effective way rather
1553 00:54:55,950 --> 00:54:58,250 than just wasting lots of resources on doing
1554 00:54:58,250 --> 00:54:58,930 almost no good.
1555 00:55:00,010 --> 00:55:04,010 Looking back at the history of the debate on climate,
1556 00:55:04,250 --> 00:55:06,290 are there any topics where you personally have
1557 00:55:06,290 --> 00:55:07,370 changed your position?
1558 00:55:09,690 --> 00:55:13,410 Not on climate. No, I mean, so I've always
1559 00:55:13,410 --> 00:55:16,730 tried to look at the latest evidence. So one
1560 00:55:16,730 --> 00:55:20,570 of the things, no, I'm going to give you
1561 00:55:20,570 --> 00:55:22,450 an example that just shows you I was more
1562 00:55:22,450 --> 00:55:26,050 right. So that's not a very good answer. So I
1563 00:55:26,050 --> 00:55:28,010 think the fundamental point has always been
1564 00:55:28,250 --> 00:55:31,090 that yes, there is a climate problem, but no,
1565 00:55:31,090 --> 00:55:32,490 it's not going to be the end of the world.
1566 00:55:32,490 --> 00:55:34,010 And that's been my sort of basic
1567 00:55:34,010 --> 00:55:36,650 argument. And most of the climate policies that
1568 00:55:36,650 --> 00:55:39,650 we can act will have fairly high cost, but
1569 00:55:39,650 --> 00:55:41,970 deliver very little, only in 100 years. Those
1570 00:55:41,970 --> 00:55:45,010 are simple, basic outcomes of the way the climate
1571 00:55:45,010 --> 00:55:48,610 works. And I think that's also why this has not
1572 00:55:48,610 --> 00:55:51,450 been challenged in 20 or 30 years, because this
1573 00:55:51,450 --> 00:55:53,690 was what the climate economists, I mean, William
1574 00:55:53,690 --> 00:55:57,730 Nordhaus, who got the Nobel Prize in Climate
1575 00:55:57,730 --> 00:56:00,690 Economics, he built the first models back in the
1576 00:56:01,330 --> 00:56:03,210 early 80s, 1980s.
1577 00:56:04,010 --> 00:56:05,890 That's what the model showed back then. And we knew
1578 00:56:05,890 --> 00:56:08,250 this. So I think much more, no, we were just
1579 00:56:08,250 --> 00:56:11,170 in, you know, slightly La La Land for 30 years.
1580 00:56:11,170 --> 00:56:12,610 And now we've come back to reality.
1581 00:56:13,490 --> 00:56:17,090 Welcome back from La La Land. We covered quite a few
1582 00:56:17,090 --> 00:56:19,610 topics, obviously not all of them. Are there
1583 00:56:19,610 --> 00:56:22,890 anything specific you would like to add to the
1584 00:56:22,890 --> 00:56:25,770 list as to summarize or anything extra?
1585 00:56:26,170 --> 00:56:30,370 So I think we end up, and I love the fact that we
1586 00:56:30,370 --> 00:56:32,890 talked so much about the poor part of the world.
1587 00:56:33,170 --> 00:56:33,690 And this is a very important part of the world.
1588 00:56:33,690 --> 00:56:33,890 So I think we end up, and I love the fact that we
1589 00:56:33,890 --> 00:56:33,970 talked so much about the poor part of the world. And this
1590 00:56:33,970 --> 00:56:36,450 podcast, but we always end up, because we live in
1591 00:56:36,450 --> 00:56:38,530 the rich world, we end up talking about climate
1592 00:56:38,530 --> 00:56:41,450 change, because that's what takes up a lot more
1593 00:56:41,450 --> 00:56:45,650 space in a rich world setting. But I think it is
1594 00:56:45,650 --> 00:56:48,610 important to recognize that, you know, about half
1595 00:56:48,610 --> 00:56:51,570 this world's population, so about 4 billion people
1596 00:56:51,770 --> 00:56:53,770 live in low and low and middle income countries,
1597 00:56:54,210 --> 00:56:58,010 where the world is just unrecognizable to the
1598 00:56:58,010 --> 00:56:59,890 immense luxury we live in.
1599 00:57:00,250 --> 00:57:03,850 And so it is worth sometimes taking a
1600 00:57:03,850 --> 00:57:06,890 step back and realizing, oh my God, we have it
1601 00:57:06,890 --> 00:57:11,090 well. Our lives are good. And while it's great that
1602 00:57:11,090 --> 00:57:13,090 we are also worried about climate change and all
1603 00:57:13,090 --> 00:57:15,570 these other things, let's just remember that there
1604 00:57:15,570 --> 00:57:19,290 are really, really big and very basic problems for
1605 00:57:19,530 --> 00:57:22,130 the majority of humanity. And these are problems
1606 00:57:22,130 --> 00:57:24,850 that we can solve at very, very low cost. So I
1607 00:57:25,170 --> 00:57:27,410 encourage you to go to our website,
1608 00:57:27,410 --> 00:57:29,570 CopenhagenConsensus.com. You can actually
1609 00:57:29,570 --> 00:57:33,130 download that one pager so you can see what the 12
1610 00:57:33,130 --> 00:57:33,730 solutions are. And then you can go to our website,
1611 00:57:33,730 --> 00:57:33,970 CopenhagenConsensus.com. You can see what the 12 solutions are.
1612 00:57:33,970 --> 00:57:37,770 And it's incredibly cheap. And what I would hope is
1613 00:57:37,770 --> 00:57:41,010 that we can push our politicians to do a little
1614 00:57:41,010 --> 00:57:44,090 more to make this world a much, much better
1615 00:57:44,090 --> 00:57:46,850 place, especially for the people who are not at
1616 00:57:46,850 --> 00:57:47,890 all where we are.
1617 00:57:48,530 --> 00:57:50,810 Thank you for that summary. And thank you so
1618 00:57:50,810 --> 00:57:52,490 much for joining me today, Björn Lomborg.
1619 00:57:53,330 --> 00:57:56,370 Stort tack också förstås till er som har lyssnat.
1620 00:57:56,490 --> 00:57:58,730 Och stort tack för att ni stod ut med min engelska
1621 00:57:58,730 --> 00:58:01,370 också. Det ni har lyssnat på, det är Leda-
1622 00:58:01,370 --> 00:58:03,690 redaktionen, en podd från Svenska Dagbladet.
1623 00:58:03,730 --> 00:58:06,050 Som vanligt är ni varmt välkomna att höra av er till oss
1624 00:58:06,050 --> 00:58:08,490 på redaktionen med tankar och synpunkter på det vi har
1625 00:58:08,490 --> 00:58:12,210 precis diskuterat. Antalet finns en hel del tankar
1626 00:58:12,210 --> 00:58:15,110 efter Björns utläggningar. Men också om ni har idéer
1627 00:58:15,110 --> 00:58:17,070 och förslag på ämnen vi ska ta upp i framtiden.
1628 00:58:17,490 --> 00:58:21,050 Maila då till ledarsidan snabla svd.se.
1629 00:58:21,390 --> 00:58:23,450 Dagens producent, han heter Jesper Sandström,
1630 00:58:23,650 --> 00:58:26,550 ansvarig utgivare är Lisa Erenius. Själv heter jag
1631 00:58:26,550 --> 00:58:28,910 Andreas Eriksson och jag hoppas att vi hörs snart igen.
Källinformation
- Utgivare:
- Svenska Dagbladet
Skapad: 25 mars 2026